A cabinet minister has cited a “very volatile electorate” as a reason why the Conservative Party’s poor performance at the local elections will not be repeated in a general election later this year.
After the final votes cast at the local elections were counted on Sunday, the Conservatives had lost control of 10 councils and more than 470 council seats.
The party also lost 10 Police and Crime Commissioners to Labour and a further 10 mayoral races — including for the West Midlands mayoralty, a post previously held by Andy Street.
Speaking on Tuesday morning, Mel Stride nonetheless insisted the Conservative Party still has “all to play for”.
The work and pensions secretary told Times Radio: “Firstly, with local elections clearly turnouts are low. I think a lot of Conservatives stayed away who are disgruntled.”
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He added that the general election which the prime minister is expected to call later this year will be an “entirely different contest” with “what is a very volatile electorate”.
“This is a volatile electorate, there are undoubtedly people that we need to win back to the Conservative cause”, Stride said, adding: “I suspect a large number of those people stayed away on election day last Thursday, and it’s down to us now to do absolutely everything we can in a united way as the party to bring back those people to the Conservative fold.”
Strides comments come as a poll reveals almost two-thirds of voters now believe a Labour victory is the most likely outcome of the next general election.
According to a new poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, conducted on May 5 after the local elections, found 63 per cent of people said a Labour government was the most likely outcome of the next national contest. (53 per cent said a Labour majority government was the most likely outcome, while 10 per cent said a Labour-led minority government was).
The 63 per cent figure is the highest number ever recorded by Redfield & Wilton Strategies to predict a Labour victory.
Meanwhile, 21 per cent of respondents said a Conservative government was the most likely outcome, the joint-lowest figure recorded by Redfield. (14 per cent picked a Conservative majority government, while 7 per cent picked a Conservative-led minority government).
Speaking for the first time after the local elections on Monday, Rishi Sunak insisted the general election result is not a “foregone conclusion”, and repeated his insistence that the result would be closer than current opinion polls suggest.
Sunak said: “The independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, that the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion and indeed actually is closer than, or the situation is closer than, many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.
“And that’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build, and that’s what I’m going to do.
“Fight for this country, fight for the things I believe and deliver for everyone on the things that matter to them”.
The PM was referring to Sky News analysis of the local election results which suggested Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament.
Elections expert Michael Thrasher had said that if Labour’s seven-point local election lead over the Conservatives was repeated at a general election then a hung parliament would be the result.
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