Latest Opinion Polls
18 May 2022 07:45 AM

Latest Opinion Polls

18 May 2022

18th May – The result of a General Election Today

The Labour lead over the Conservatives is currently trending at 4.8%. Polling averages extrapolated in the three weeks running up to May 18 place Labour on 38.7%, the Conservatives on 33.9%, and the Liberal Democrats on 11.0%.

Although Labour’s lead in the polls has dropped back from the 9.5% peak that it enjoyed in the period between mid January and mid February 2022, the party has maintained a steady lead of between 4%-6% across the last three months. Neither the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, nor the issuing of a fixed penalty notice to the prime minister on April 12, have resulted in any notable effects on the opinion polls. The Lib Dems do though appear to have nudged up 2% in the polls in May.

If a General Election was held today, and the public vote reflected the average polling position in the three weeks to May 18, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons:

The result of a general election is projected as a hung parliament with Labour some 29 seats short of a working majority at Westminster.

On the basis of the current polling position, Boris Johnson would narrowly lose his Uxbridge seat in the House of Commons.

Deputy Prime Minister, Dominic Raab, woukld also comfortably surrender his Esher and Walton seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour’s lead in the national opinion polls has decreased since early February, the party’s likely standing at Westminster has been given a notable boost by tentative signs of a Labour revival in Scotland. With Labour now polling 9% higher in Scotland than in the 2019 General Eleciton, Labour is currently on course to gain 8 seats off the SNP. This would take Labour to 9 seats in Scotland, far short of the 40 plus mark that they enjoyed for much of the post war period, but nevertheless a notable change in trajectory.

Without a revival north of the border, Labour approach the next General Election, needing an opinion poll lead of around 12% over the Conservatives to be confident of winning an on outright majority at Westminster. The scale of this required lead, also reflects how in 2019, the Labour vote was disproportionately concentrated in already safe Labour seats (notably in England’s big cities).

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