Labour has 99% chance of winning next election, says expert John Curtice

The Labour Party has a 99 per cent chance of winning the next general election, leading polling expert Sir John Curtice has said.

The leading psephologist insisted that “the Labour Party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons”.

The comments came after a speech at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow and in response to a question posed by Politico.

After delivering his verdict, Curtice added: “Are you surprised?

The comments follow a series of dire opinion poll ratings for the Conservatives, including a recent Telegraph-Savanta poll that put the party at its lowest rating since the aftermath of Liz Truss’ mini-budget, on 24 per cent.

With the House of Commons now in recess, prime minister Rishi Sunak will now be readying for the local council elections loom on 2 May.

In another dire forecast for Sunak’s Conservative Party, fellow polling experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have said the Tories are on course to lose half the seats they are defending at these elections. 

The highly-respected duo, both associate members of Nuffield College, Oxford, said that Labour is set to gain around 300 seats, with the Liberal Democrats and Green Party also expected to see their number of councillors increase, the pair said.

On 2 May, more than 2,600 seats will be up for grabs across England, with the Conservatives and Labour defending around 1,000 each.

The last time these seats were up for election, in 2021, the Conservative Party was enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to the success of the Covid vaccine rollout. Then, the party won comfortably with a national equivalent vote (NEV) share of 40 per cent, versus Labour’s 30 per cent.

Writing for the Local Government Chronicle, Rallings and Thrasher said that means “Conservative losses are inevitable” this time around.

They said: “If the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election.

“Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance. We will not know the extent of any Reform party challenge until nominations close, but it cannot be completely discounted.”

Rishi Sunak launched his local election campaign earlier in the week, attacking Labour leader Keir Starmer for “arrogantly” taking voters for granted and “assuming he can just stroll into No 10”. is the UK’s leading digital-only political website, providing comprehensive coverage of UK politics. Subscribe to our daily newsletter here.