The below news article first appeared as a blog post on political mapping and visualisation platform Polimapper‘s website.
Nearly nine in 10 election candidates who have a realistic opportunity of winning a seat at the general election have now been selected.
Research by interactive geo-advocacy platform, Polimapper, shows that as of early March the identities of 87% of “prime candidates” were known.
This is significant because they are the group from which the new cohort of MPs entering the House of Commons for the first time in 2024 will emerge.
Rishi Sunak recently ruled out the prospect of a May election, indicating that it will take place in the second half of the year instead.
Although many commentators point to the opinion polls as his main reason for delaying, the graph below suggests another reason: the Conservatives are behind the other parties in selecting their prime candidates.
% of prime election candidates selected by political parties as of March 4th 2024
As of the start of March, the Conservatives had selected just over three quarters of their prime candidates (72 out of 93), whereas Labour were at nearly 90% (194 out of 218) and the Lib Dems are at 95% (with 42 from 44 selected).
This means logistically the Conservatives have some catching up to do on their rival parties before they’re ready for a general election.
With a full six months or more before voters go to the polls, organisations who can identify prime candidates have a head start when seeking to engage and build relationships with them before they become MPs.
The forthcoming general election is of particular significance because of the scale of change that is about to take place in Westminster.
Brandon Lewis this week has followed Theresa May and 94 other current MPs in standing down from parliament at the next election.
When this is combined with data from the polls to calculate the number of seats that could change hands at the next election, the number of new MPs is likely to exceed the figure of 37% at the 1997 general election, which is the highest in the last 50 years.
This has major implications for the next parliament on a wide array of issues, including the possibility of newly elected MPs being parachuted straight into a front bench role.
The make up of select committees and APPGs will be radically different, and parliament’s position as a whole on a range of ethical issues, such as assisted dying, may change.
Polimapper has defined prime candidates as those succeeding a sitting MP, or Labour candidates who would win a Conservative or SNP seat with a 15% swing.
We also considered prime candidates Lib Dems who would win a Conservative or SNP seat with a swing of 15%, and SNP or Plaid Cyrmu candidates contesting a Conservative or Liberal Democrat seat in which they would be victorious with a 5% swing.
As of March 4th 2024, 327 of 377 prime candidates had been selected.
Polimapper is owned by Senate Media Ltd, the political publishing company that also owns Politics.co.uk.
Polimapper’s Candidate Connect product contains nearly 1,800 candidates in total, each with contact information, a brief professional biography, and a swing bracket to provide an indication of their chances of winning their seat.
