Comment: There are no winners from the EU standoff
Friday, 9 December 2011 9:59 AM
Even eurosceptic MPs must bear a heavy burden for having risked the eurozone's collapse.
By Alex Stevenson Follow @alex__stevenson
The most important moments of history are never cheerful ones. Real change, when it comes, arrives amid feelings of foreboding and uncertainty, not euphoria and relief. Apart from the ending of wars, the most significant developments are always the most disturbing.
Sometime in the early hours of this morning, one of those moments arrived. The European Union, which for 38 troubled years has never appeared as embattled as it does now, failed to reach agreement as it strove to rescue the euro. Its 27 member states are now divided.
It will take time before we discover the real consequences of that unavoidable truth. But we can at least make at least one very reasoned assessment: there are no out-and-out winners as a result of the Brussels summit.
For stemming from that historic division comes a changed state of play in which all the big actors find their positions less secure.
The '17-plus' group which comprises the bulk of the continent is determined to push ahead with its plans without Britain. Its leaders will try to downplay the significance of having lost European unity, but they will regret the impasse. The UK's veto of the financial transactions tax mattered precisely because so much of its revenues would have come from the City. What follows could be a weaker fiscal union which could ultimately fail in its objective: rescuing the euro.
Britain's government is also in a weaker position. No amount of diplomatic legwork will be able to hide the fact that the UK's veto has established a two-tier Europe, leaving only London and Budapest on the lower level. Those speculating that this could be the beginning of the end for Britain's involvement in the European project are not outside the realms of plausibility. A more probable outcome, which sees Britain's influence in Brussels diminished, is not something to celebrate.
In British domestic politics, there is little to cheer about. The coalition government's stability will be undermined by Cameron's veto, even though Nick Clegg and other senior Lib Dem figures in government recognise the prime minister had no choice but to defy France, Germany and the rest. Grassroots Lib Dems are fanatically pro-European and will greet today's news will dismay. This is not good news for those hoping the coalition will survive in 2015.
Labour is unlikely to make much political capital from Brussels. Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander's broadbrush criticisms of the Conservative approach do not hide the fact the opposition would have rejected Sarkozy and Merkel's proposals, too. Labour is only just waking up to the fact it has a serious European problem. And life has just become much easier for its small but defiant band of eurosceptics.
Which just leaves those Conservative backbenchers who had spent the week pushing for Cameron to show some backbone. If any single group can be pleased with the way things have turned out, it is this band of troublemakers. They will now begin the pursuit of their next goals, seeking to use this "opportunity" to get Britain out of the EU once and for all.
Tory eurosceptics may feel like winners today, but they are not. In pursuit of their ultimate goal they thrive on the instability and uncertainty created by division in Europe. The pressure they placed on Cameron proved decisive in pushing the PM to use his veto. We don't know what will follow, but it has certainly resulted in a further weakening of prospects for an escape from the eurocrisis.
If the '17-plus' group's efforts to save the euro fail, Britain's economy will be dragged into a lengthy, painful recession far worse than the first. If that happens, those eurosceptics will have a lot to answer for.
The opinions in politics.co.uk's Comment and Analysis section are those of the author and are no reflection of the views of the website or its owners.
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