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A new poll conducted by Survation on behalf of campaigning organisation Best for Britain has shown that 37 per cent of voters who receive their news mostly from Conservative-leaning newspapers plan to vote Labour at the next election — compared to 22 per cent who plan to vote for the Tories.
Interestingly, the poll of 15,029 adults found that readers of The Sun are the most likely of these outlets to back Labour, with almost four in ten intending to cast their vote for Keir Starmer’s party at the next election. This compares to one in four Sun readers who plan to back the Conservatives. In the end, the only Tory-backing paper recorded as bucking this trend was The Daily Mail, whose readers continue to lean Conservative by 33 per cent to 26 per cent for Labour. Full details here.
The conservative press, of course, has historically been no friend to Labour leaders or the party more broadly; and in many senses, Starmer is no different.
Earlier this year, the tabloid’s immensely well-connected political editor, Harry Cole, penned a column entitled “The fantastic (policy-free) world of Sir Frank Hope… aka the man who wants to be our next Prime Minister”. The piece, which was shared widely round Westminster (mainly by Conservative politicians), suggested Starmer was offering voters “snake oil” and that the Labour leader was being swept to power with “bland platitudes, mulchy soundbites and zero accountability”.
Still, this same Harry Cole hosted Starmer as his star guest on the inaugural episode of The Sun’s new politics show, Never Mind the Ballots, last month. The prime minister, conversely, was forced to wait a full fortnight for his turn in the spotlight (/time in The Sun?).
“Sir Frank Hope”
One observation here then, is that while the right-wing press may not love Sir Keir, the Labour leader simply refuses to adopt the same hostile position taken by many of his predecessors — including and especially Jeremy Corbyn.
In a Labour leadership debate in 2015, Corbyn professed he “doesn’t buy The Sun” to rapturous applause (and eventually election) by the Labour membership. Duly, after a four-year-long deeply adversarial relationship, a Sun editorial published during the 2019 general election labelled Corbyn “the most dangerous man ever to stand for high office in Britain”.
Frankly, Starmer has learned to speak The Sun’s language in a way his immediate predecessor never could. Harangued by Harry Cole on Never Mind the Ballots, for instance, Starmer called on Nike to “reconsider” its decision to change the colour of the St George’s Cross on the new England football shirt — earning the Labour leader a glowing front page splash the next day. Starmer “blasts woke flag and high price”, the paper noted.
The Sun’s position on Starmer and Labour is important, in part, because of popular memory of the 1997 election when the paper endorsed an ascendant Tony Blair. The headline “THE SUN BACKS BLAIR” was heralded at the time as an important moment on Labour’s path back to power, especially in light of the paper’s infamous reflections on the 1992 election result.
In hindsight, however, it is often noted that The Sun was actually following public opinion, rather than shaping it, with its sensational Blair endorsement. (The Murdochs, one supposes, like to support the winning side to bolster their public image as kingmakers and gain influence in the victorious regime and its successors).
It raises the very real prospect that The Sun could detach itself from the tarnished Conservative brand at the next election. It would be another striking sign of the times for Rishi Sunak et al.
Collapse in Scotland
Meanwhile, it is the day after Humza Yousaf jettisoned the Scottish Greens from his government and the beleaguered first minister now faces a no confidence vote tabled by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross. More here.
With the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens all backing the no confidence measure, a full 64 MSPs are expected to vote to oust the FM — that is one short of a majority in the 129-seat chamber. The SNP, by contrast, currently has 63 MSPs.
The arithmetic means that Ash Regan, an MSP for former first minister Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, is likely to hold the deciding vote. Regan defected to Alba from the SNP last year, having previously come third in the leadership election that led to Yousaf’s elevation as leader.
This morning she penned a pretty vague letter of demands to the first minister which, if agreed to, could secure her vote or ensure she abstains. I will have more on Yousaf’s travails in tomorrow’s Week-in-Review article — but, right now, things do not look good for the FM’s long-term political future.
Lunchtime briefing
SNP Westminster leader urges ‘cool heads’ ahead of confidence vote in Humza Yousaf
Labour is favoured party among readers of Conservative-leaning newspapers, according to poll
Lunchtime soundbite
‘I intend absolutely to fight that vote of no confidence and I am getting on with the day job’
— In a press conference this afternoon, Humza Yousaf says he will not resign as first minister of Scotland and that he intends to “fight” attempts to oust him.
Now try this…
‘A summer election may be Sunak’s only hope of avoiding a wipeout’
ConservativeHome’s William Atkinson writes.
‘Humza Yousaf is finished’
The New Statesman‘s Chris Deerin argues the only question is when, not if, the FM is forced from office. (Paywall)
‘Tory star Kemi Badenoch blasts David Cameron’s Brexit “dereliction of duty”’
Politico reports.
On this day in 2023:
Home secretary: ‘Totally unacceptable’ and ‘undemocratic’ for ECHR to overrule government decisions
