Labour candidate Andrew Western is the country’s newest MP after comfortably winning the Stretford and Urmston by-election held on Thursday. Mr Western, who secured 69.65 per cent of the votes, up 9.34 per cent on the snap general election three years ago, said the result sent a “strong message” to Rishi Sunak’s Government.
Stretford and Urmston went to the polls to choose a new MP after Labour’s former minister Kate Green stepped down last month having been nominated as deputy mayor of Greater Manchester.
Cold weather conditions on polling day and the expectation of a Labour win contributed to a very low turnout of just 25.8 per cent.
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, has said that the results of the Stretford and Urmston, and Chester by-elections show the Labour Party is in its strongest position since 2010.
Sir John told the BBC Radio 4 “Today” programme: “If you take Stretford and Chester together, they basically are consistent with the evidence of the opinion polls which is that Labour are now in a stronger position than they have been at any point since David Cameron walked through 10 Downing Street as prime minister in 2010.
“Therefore the challenge that the Conservatives are facing is certainly a very substantial one”.
Asked what the result told us, Sir John pointed out that the swing in Urmston at 10.5 per cent was less than that in Chester when it was nearly 14 per cent. The Chester by-election was held on 1 December 2022 resulting in a victory for Labour candidate Samantha Dixon.
Sir John said: “I think also if you were a Conservative spokesman you would also point out the extremely low turnout, just over 25 per cent, indeed by my records… I think the 43.6 point drop in the turnout in Stretford and Urmston represents a record fall in turnout between a by-election and the previous general election in any post-war by-election”.
Commenting further on the political situation, Sir John added that while Labour’s 20-point poll lead is reminiscent of what was seen in the run-up to Tony Blair’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election, we are nonetheless in “uncharted territory”. “The big difference from that Parliament is that John Major stayed after 1992”, Sir John explained, “the Conservatives on this occasion have changed their prime minister albeit for a second time in a year and to that extent, at least, we are therefore in uncharted territory. The question we are asking ourselves is can Rishi Sunak as a prime minister in the end persuade voters to ignore what happened in the Liz Truss administration?”.
In his victory speech, Mr Western said the results gave a “strong message” to the Sunak government.
“The Tories have given up on governing and it is increasingly clear that the British people are giving up on them,” he said.
“And the people of Stretford and Urmston do not just speak for this constituency but for millions more people up and down the land, who know that this Government has been letting us down for the past 12 years.
“Twelve failing years of Conservative government, coming to an end.
“It is clear from this result tonight, and indeed the result two weeks ago in Chester, that people are ready for a Labour government, and let the message go out tonight that Labour are ready to govern. Thank you”.
