Tories would win next election, poll finds
The Conservatives would win the next general election if it was held tomorrow, a new poll suggests.
An ICM poll for The Guardian finds the Tories under David Cameron have reached the 40 per cent of support that is generally considered to spell electoral success.
Meanwhile, Labour has slumped to their lowest support since before the 1987 election, and the second lowest since ICM began this series of polls in 1984.
Just 31 per cent of voters now say they would back Labour on polling day, down four points on the previous months, and nine percentage points behind the Tories.
The party continues to hold lead of 13 points among the under 24s, but this group is least likely to turn out on polling day. Elsewhere, Labour is losing the middle-class vote, although women are still more likely to vote for them than the Conservatives.
The poll comes in the middle of Tony Blair’s holiday, and this – combined with the disquiet about deputy prime minister John Prescott being in charge of the country while he is away – may have had some impact on the government’s poll standings.
Home secretary John Reid has presented a strong public face ever since news of the alleged plot to blow up several transatlantic flights emerged, but today’s survey reveals widespread scepticism about the government’s response to terrorism.
Nearly three quarters of all voters (72 per cent) and 65 per cent of Labour voters believe the government’s policy has made the UK a terrorist target, with just one per cent saying the country’s foreign policy has made it safer.
And just 20 per cent of voters, and 26 per cent of Labour voters, believe ministers are telling the truth about the threat facing the UK, despite the introduction of a new system to make public the official threat level.
Twenty-one per cent believe the government is exaggerating the danger, and 51 per cent believe it is not telling the whole truth, and may be divulging less than it knows.
Last week, a survey for The Spectator found that 36 per cent of voters thought minsisters were exaggerating the threat of terrorism, with two thirds of these believing it was because they were ill informed.
Labour’s woes have clearly benefited Mr Cameron’s party, but they have also given a welcome boost to the Liberal Democrats – today’s ICM poll shows a five point increase on last month, bringing them 22 per cent of the vote.
Leader Menzies Campbell is facing a difficult party conference next month, where he will have to face rank and file members and explain why he has failed to make any significant impact in the polls since taking over from Charles Kennedy in March.
