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He’s only gone and done it. Former Conservative deputy party chair Anderson has put to bed the feverish speculation about his political future by defecting to Reform UK — making him the restyled Brexit Party’s first MP.
How did we get here? Well, “30p Lee [Anderson]” was cast into the wilderness late last month after his comments relating to Sadiq Khan caused widespread controversy. Remarking on the row at the time, Rishi Sunak said: “Lee’s comments weren’t acceptable, they were wrong. That’s why he’s had the whip suspended”. Today, one covert meeting at a Holiday Inn hotel at junction 28 of the M1 later, and Anderson has ditched the Conservatives for good.
Speaking to a Reform press conference at around 10.45 am, Anderson told reporters that “I want my country back”. His “soul-searching”, he insisted, had guided him inexorably to Reform’s warm embrace. (That said, Anderson’s statement felt rather a lot more like a defence of his conduct than a glowing endorsement of his new party). Read more here.
Anderson’s move is significant, of course; but I confess that I’m not feeling the same Westminster-reverberating “shockwaves” some of my press gallery colleagues are measuring. In fact, Anderson’s commitment to the Conservative Party was always pretty skin deep — certainly compared to many of his former colleagues. He is a former Labour councillor who defected to the Tories in 2018, citing his staunch Brexit-supporting and anti-Corbyn views. A problem for Tice, you could say then, is he hasn’t exactly nabbed the loyalest new comrade.
What is arguably rather more interesting, then, are the public criticisms many in Reform have voiced of Anderson in recent weeks. Speaking after the ex-Tory MP was jettisoned from the Conservatives in February, Reform’s deputy leader Ben Habib suggested that Anderson was not of sufficient calibre to represent his party. Meanwhile, Reform’s culture spokesperson, Alex Phillips, declared in a now-deleted tweet: “I personally don’t want someone who is Ex Labour and Ex Tory, lacks discipline and was only a few weeks ago slagging us off”. Commenting on his erstwhile opposition to Reform UK during a press huddle this morning, Anderson admitted to “throwing you lot off the scent”. “That’s politics darling”, he added.
So, personalities aside, just how seismic is Anderson’s defection?
As far as Richard Tice is concerned, this is his (heavily caveated) Carswell moment. Simply put, Reform has ransacked the Conservative Parliamentary Party and taken a Tory MP for their own. Like Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP in 2014, Tice will style Anderson’s departure as a sign of the times.
But here come those caveats: Carswell’s defection to UKIP in 2014 was significant because, (1), he left the Conservative Party of his own volition, making the move a classic defection; and, (2), he subsequently triggered and won a by-election in his Clacton constituency. Neither of these points apply to Anderson — that is despite the fact he voted in favour of Anthony Mangall’s Recall of MPs (Change of Party Affiliation) Bill in 2020.
Nonetheless, for Anderson’s pure political interests, joining Reform would appear to be the right move. UKIP won 10,150 votes in Ashfield at the 2015 general election, meaning there is a significant right-of-Conservative vote to be tapped into. With opinion polls suggesting Ashfield will return to Labour later this year, a highly personalised anti-Westminster campaign might be Anderson’s best bet at re-election.
For Rishi Sunak, however, Anderson’s defection today is naturally extremely embarrassing. In February 2023, Anderson’s political stock was vastly increased by Sunak after he promoted the relatively lowly Tory to be his deputy party chairman. Having once embraced the “Red Wall Rottweiler”, therefore, Anderson’s defection is a far bigger story for Sunak than it needed to be.
This whole episode, in the end, seems illustrative of the PM’s political fallibility and inexperience.
Tellingly, the response from all quarters of the Conservative Party to Anderson’s defection reads bleakly for the prime minister. The New Conservatives group of right-wing Tory MPs has put out a statement essentially blaming the PM for Anderson’s defection: “The responsibility for Lee’s defection sits with the Conservative Party”, the grouping states.
For New Conservative/“five families” types, Anderson encapsulates the “spirit of 2019”, when Labour’s Red Wall came crumbling down. Meanwhile, Conservative moderates are lining up to question why Anderson was vaulted within the party in the first place.
Lunchtime briefing
‘I want my country back’: Lee Anderson defects to Reform UK as party’s first MP
PM warned against seeking ‘short-term tactical advantage’ on extremism definition
Lunchtime soundbite
[Of] course he didn’t inform the Prime Minister. Big girl’s blouse
— Conservative MP Jackie Doyle-Price reacts to news Lee Anderson did not inform the prime minister of his intention to defect to Reform UK ahead of the party’s press conference this morning.
Now try this:
‘Lee Anderson’s Reform defection spells trouble for Rishi Sunak’
The Spectator’s Katy Balls writes. (Paywall)
‘Ministers should be very wary that Labour appears to relish a fight on abolishing National Insurance’
Former cabinet minister David Gauke writes for ConservativeHome
‘Revealed: Keir Starmer’s plan to revolutionise the way Britain is governed’
The Times reports that the Labour leader has plans for a powerful new executive cabinet and mission boards to focus on his priorities after the general election. (Paywall)
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