Conservative election guru Isaac Levido warns MPs path to victory could get ‘narrower and steeper’

The Conservative Party’s campaign chief has dismissed a poll which predicted a 1997-style drubbing for Rishi Sunak at the next election, calling on MPs to focus on a “narrow and steep” path to victory.

Isaac Levido, the man charged with delivering Rishi Sunak a highly unlikely and historic fifth Conservative election victory this year, told a meeting of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers last night that those behind the bombshell survey appeared to be “throwing in the towel”.

The MRP poll, published in the Telegraph yesterday, predicted that the Conservative Party would win just 169 seats at the next election, with Labour on 385. It would give Labour leader Keir Starmer a majority of 120 seats.

The poll, based on a survey of 14,000 people, also indicated that every single seat in the so-called “Red Wall” won by the Conservatives at the 2019 election would be lost.

Levido told Conservative MPs: “Some of you may have noticed there is an MRP model in a newspaper today

“The idea that this poll and model is the most authoritative one published in the last five years is just false — it’s just another poll, another MRP model, with the same margins of error, the same statistical limitations as any other”.

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He added: “And you know your constituencies better than me, better than any media commentators and certainly better than any public pollster”.

He went on to accuse the poll of being “orchestrated” to “undermine” the prime minister, coming just days ahead of the Rwanda bill’s committee stage in the House of Commons.

The poll, conducted by YouGov, was commissioned by a group called the Conservative Britain Alliance “working with [Tory peer] Lord Frost”. 

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 Levido said: “The people who organised this poll and analysed and timed the release of it seem to be intent on undermining this government and our party, and therefore the re-election prospects of every single one of you in this room.

“They seem to be throwing in the towel, and are more interested in what happens after the election rather than fighting it — making the pathway narrower and steeper.

“Let me be clear. Divided parties fail.

“It’s time to get serious — I am fighting to win this election, and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe it was possible. We all need to be fighting to win this election.

“People do not want Starmer. They are looking for reasons to vote for us. We must not give them any more reasons not to”. is the UK’s leading digital-only political website, providing comprehensive coverage of UK politics. Subscribe to our daily newsletter here.