Figures released by the Office for Students (OfS) today find that more than half of first class degrees awarded to students in 2020-21 cannot be explained when compared to students’ attainment a decade ago.
The report – Analysis of degree classifications over time: changes in graduate attainment from 2010-11 to 2020-21 – analyses degrees awarded to students between 2010-11 and 2020-21, with data presented at a sector, subject and individual university and college level.
In 2010-11, 15.7 per cent of students were awarded first class honours. The proportion of students awarded the top grade has more than doubled, reaching 37.9 per cent in 2020-21.
Nearly six in ten first class degrees are unexplained. Of the 37.9 per cent of students awarded first class degrees, 22.4 percentage points remained unexplained after the OfS had taken into account a variety of observable factors – including students’ prior entry qualifications and their background characteristics – which may affect attainment.
By 2020-21 all universities and colleges included in the analysis saw significant increases in unexplained first class degrees when compared to 2010-11.
- The term “unexplained” in the analysis means that changes in attainment since 2010-11 cannot be statistically accounted for by changes in the characteristics of the graduating cohort in terms of the explanatory variables included in the statistical modelling.
Rates of first class awards have risen for all students, regardless of their entry qualifications. In 2020-21, 60.8 per cent of students with three As and above at A-level received a first class degree, compared to 33.5 per cent in 2010-11. The average rate of firsts for those entering with A-levels DDD and below has increased more than five-fold, from 5.3 per cent to 28.5 per cent.
Susan Lapworth, interim chief executive at the OfS, said: “This report starkly demonstrates the scale of increases in degree classifications in our universities and colleges. Unmerited grade inflation is bad for students, graduates and employers, and damages the reputation of English higher education.
“We know that universities and colleges used ‘no detriment’ policies to respond to the exceptional set of circumstances caused by the pandemic. But grade inflation has been a real credibility issue for the sector for some time and the pandemic cannot be used as an excuse to allow a decade of unexplained grade inflation to be baked into the system.
“Our report is clear that there are a variety of reasons – including improved teaching and learning – that could lead to an increase in the rate of firsts awarded. However the sustained increase in unexplained firsts awarded continues to pose regulatory concerns for the OfS.”
“It is essential that students, employers and graduates can have confidence that degrees represent an accurate assessment of achievement, with credible and reliable qualifications which stand the test of time. Where this is not the case, the OfS has always said we are prepared to take action. We now have new conditions of registration in force and we will be publishing more details about our plans to investigate these issues shortly.”
Professor Steve West CBE, president of Universities UK, said: “Universities remain committed to addressing grade inflation. Our recent publication outlines steps that universities have taken – including reviewing the degree classification system and the way final grades are calculated – and explains the impact the pandemic had on the progress made, since many universities needed to change their assessment policies.
“Universities are also working to ensure they deliver the highest quality courses that deliver the best outcomes for students and combined with the continued hard work of students, this is likely to partly explain these trends.
“The Office for Students has rightly designed a regulatory system based on the principle that the grades a student enters university with should not limit expectations of what they can achieve, and this logic must also apply to degree classification.
“Universities have been asked to ensure students from disadvantaged backgrounds have the support they need to succeed at university. We believe the OfS must be careful not to assume that students with lower entry grades, typically from more disadvantaged backgrounds, cannot achieve first class degrees.”
