By Richard Heller
The Leave campaign has conclusively lost the opening battles of the EU referendum. It now has less than a month to win the war.
It needs to very quickly appeal to voters who normally vote Labour or otherwise line up on the left side of the political spectrum. So far the Leave campaign has offered them almost nothing. It has been beset with factional infighting with all the dominant messages belonging to the Tory Right.
This is especially true on the economy. Vote Leave and what do you get? The main answer appears to be a fanatical free-market government, like Mrs Thatcher's on steroids. The suggestion is that the government would free big business from the EU's protections to women, workers and the environment. This is a free gift for Labour’s Remainers. It makes it all too easy for them to drum up support for an EU which, in reality, has brought mass unemployment to large parts of the continent.
Even without this problem, it is a mistake for Leave to concentrate on the economy. This is a battlefield chosen by its enemy. The economic benefits of leaving the EU are inevitably uncertain. We honestly cannot tell where the British economy will end up after we leave. But the economic penalties can be made to seem real and terrifying. And the Remain campaign can wheel out an inexhaustible supply of political, business and media grandees to say so. The Leave campaign may be able to call on some big names of its own but many of them are box office poison to Labour supporters. Leave can never win a war of endorsements. It will always be outnumbered by Remain, if only because so many grandees derive power or income or profit from the status quo – or even direct subsidy from the EU.
So why not turn the Leave campaign into a voter insurgency against those very grandees? Make the referendum a judgement on the way they have run our country. Turn a Leave vote into a demand for something better.
Remain's grandees are led by the last four British prime ministers: Cameron, Brown, Blair and Major. They have all told the British people it is essential for them to remain in the EU – although two of them, Brown and Major, had some of their greatest success by keeping Britain out of key EU policies.
Also urging us to Remain is the political, administrative and business establishment which held the levers of power and influence behind those four prime ministers. With occasional changes of figureheads and slogans, the Remainers have given our country its rulers for the last 25 years. The EU referendum puts a simple choice to voters. Will they say thank you to those rulers, and please carry on? Or will voters look at their record and take the once-and-for-all chance to make their objections clear?
During that period our rulers gave us the Iraq war and the failed intervention in Afghanistan. Hundreds of soldiers killed, thousands wounded, maimed, permanently scarred, billions of pounds spent and no national interest achieved.
The ruling establishment has a long record of making the wrong calls
During that period, our rulers also handed our banking system to people who could neither value or even understand it – and then made us pay when it crashed.
During that period, our rulers gave us an economy dependent on colossal public and private debt, with big disparities not only in wealth and income but in opportunity and expectations.
During that period, our rulers gave us an overloaded health service, drowning in debt, and in thrall to constant expensive and pointless reorganizations. Millions of older people, children and mentally ill people are routinely deprived of essential care.
During that period, our rulers fiddled constantly with public services and with local government. Regardless of party label our rulers shared a misplaced faith in management science and a rooted belief that the public sector was always inferior to the private.
During that period, our rulers failed to manage or control immigration. Although our country has become dependent on immigrant labour, our rulers have failed to make the British people appreciate its benefits and look down on them when they point out its downside.
During that period, our rulers created cities whose essential workers cannot afford to live in them, cities full of ugly buildings and drably uniform centres and angry frightened neighbourhoods where people do not know their neighbours.
And during that period, our rulers have constantly proclaimed success in negotiations with the EU – most recently in David Cameron’s meaningless concessions – while presiding over a one-way transfer of powers from our country to Brussels. At best, they have turned Britain into the Private Godfrey of the EU – asking permission to be excused when something awful like the euro is about to happen.
A vote for Remain is a vote to maintain the failed status quo
In spite of their dismal record on issue after issue, our ruling establishment over the last 25 years have become unshakable in asserting their right to govern. They do not care very much for democracy and resent debate or criticism.
The ruling establishment constantly insist their policies represent a 'centre ground' which no reasonable or informed person could reject. In doing so, they minimized the differences between all the mainstream parties – a set of dogs fighting for the same lamp post. For a short time it seemed that Jeremy Corbyn would offer a real alternative. But on the EU, even his resolution has collapsed.
Voting Remain entails a vote of confidence in this ruling elite and their record. It means accepting that the next 25 years will be pretty much the same as the last. Voting Leave means rejecting them and seeking something different. It means taking a chance. There is no guarantee at all of a better future after we leave. Securing it will require a mighty effort, which may be beyond our new rulers. But even if there's just a 10 chance of something new, it would be better than a 100% chance of more of the same.
Richard Heller is an author and journalist.
The opinions in Politics.co.uk's Comment and Analysis section are those of the author and are no reflection of the views of the website or its owners.
