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It’s the day after the defection before — and Lee Anderson’s decision to lump in with the Faragists still poses manifold problems for Rishi Sunak’s beleaguered No 10 operation.
Of course, although it is day two of the defection, we are still yet to hear from the PM directly. Presumably, it will be in prime minister’s questions tomorrow afternoon that Sunak pronounces on the matter for the first time. Readying for his weekly despatch box bout, Keir Starmer has no shortage of material with which to lampoon the down-on-his-luck PM. (See also this).
Indeed, rather than picking up on stories of Conservatives rallying around the prime minister (they don’t exist), the commentary since Anderson’s defection has focussed on those who could join the new Reform MP on the opposition benches.
In this way, Anderson’s defection poses a dilemma for Reform leader Richard Tice, too. His party’s honorary president, Nigel Farage, will surely be counselling Tice that a defection is at its most potent when it is followed up.
One of the reasons why Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP in 2014 was so damaging to the then-PM, David Cameron, was because he did not go alone: in the space of a month, Carswell was followed by fellow defector Mark Reckless. Tice, for what it’s worth, told Sky News this morning that there are “conversations going on” with Conservative MPs; he won’t give a “running commentary”, however.
So who are the possible Conservative-Reform switchers? MPs of Anderson’s ilk, such as Brendan Clarke-Smith (who resigned as Tory deputy chair alongside Anderson over the Rwanda Bill), Nick Fletcher and Mark Jenkinson, are sometimes spoken of as potential defectors.
That said, I am of the opinion that something significant still needs to change — either individually for these MPs or broadly for Reform — for any such defections to come to pass.
Anderson, of course, was pushed from the Conservative Party over his comments relating to Sadiq Khan before he jumped to Reform yesterday. The new Reform MP is also a former Labour councillor who defected to the Tories in 2018 — on account of his staunch Brexit-supporting and anti-Corbyn views. Anderson’s former colleagues will likely be more attached to the Conservative Party than this perennial turncoat.
On top of this, Reform is still struggling to prove its worth at consecutive by-elections. It means Tice’s insistence this morning that the “grass is greener” with Reform, electorally at least, doesn’t quite stand up to scrutiny.
Lunchtime briefing
‘We need to move on’: Minister calls time on row over donor’s Diane Abbott comments
Lunchtime soundbite
It is frightening. I live in Hackney and do not drive, so I find myself, at weekends, popping on a bus or even walking places more than most MPs. … To hear someone talking like this is worrying.
— Diane Abbott says the comments reported to have been made by a Conservative donor about her are “frightening”. Frank Hester, who donated £10 million to the Conservative Party last year, is reported to have said that Abbott made him “want to hate all black women”.
Now try this:
‘Liz Truss’ journey from Downing Street to ‘deep state’ conspiracist’
Politico’s Sam Blewett on how a failed prime minister reinvented herself as a US-style populist.
‘Anderson’s defection neatly embodies a right that is long on anger but short on answers’
ConservativeHome’s Henry Hill writes.
‘Death of local papers threatens democracy’
Times columnist and former Conservative Party leader William Hague argues that, in much of Britain, regional news is hollowed out or close to extinction but it is vital in holding politicians to account. (Paywall)
On this day in 2022:
The Ukraine crisis is so far, not impacting on UK opinion polls
