Research shows Tories on the up

By Aled Thomas

New research based on polling data shows that the Tories are increasing their lead.

A new seat-by-seat projection by PoliticsHome.co.uk says David Cameron will command an overall Commons majority of 16, having been shown to be 11 short of controlling the House last week.

Based on regional polling data by Yougov, it shows that since April 1st the projected number of Tory seats has risen from 315 to 333, passing the magic number of 326 needed for an overall majority.

Labour is now projected to win 241, down from 254 and the Liberal Democrats 44, four fewer than projected in April 1st.

Regionally, Labour retains a lead over the Tories in the north-east, the north-west, Yorkshire and the Humber, Wales and Scotland. The Tories have a lead in the East and West Midlands, the east of England, London, the south-east and the south-west.

Peter Kellner, president of YouGov said: “A north-south divide has opened up in this election: the swing to the Conservatives is greater in the Midlands and north than in southern England. In the five regions to the north of a line from the Severn to the Wash, the average swing to the Conservatives is 7.5 %; south of that line it is five per cent.

“Labour remains more popular in the northern half of England than in the southern half, and will win more seats there than the Tories, even if David Cameron becomes prime minister; but the gap between the two halves of England is slightly narrower than it used to be.

Mr Kellner added that Labour seeemd to be clawing back ground lost to the SNP, and in the south-west there was the smallest swing of any region of one per cent form the Lib Dems to the Conservatives.