Last month’s local election results as well as the Runcorn and Helsby by-election have sparked much discussion about the Labour Party’s electoral strategy. There is a fierce debate being held amongst commentators and politicians about whether Labour should focus on trying to appeal to more so called ‘Progressives’ or whether the correct approach is to chase Reform votes.
This is a false choice, and a caricature of voters in the real world. Real voters’ political views are far more complex than the categories we attempt to assign them to.
MPs, journalists and other political obsessives live, quite literally, in a Westminster bubble. The nature of politics centred around the parliamentary estate means we often spend more time speaking to each other, or journalists or people who study the politics of our country in academic terms. The political class assigns labels to make sense of the world — so that it can present an analysis of voter behaviour and likely political outcomes.
Arguably, such an approach was more effective when voters were more tribal and therefore predictable. While it was once the case that 70% of voters always voted for the same party, that figure is now believed to be as low as 30%. Voters are much more likely to vote according to their views on specific issues today than they are based on how their parents voted.
My experience of speaking to voters on the doorstep is that they are complex. The old ‘left’ and ‘right’ labels are simply insufficient. The common thread is that voters are angry with the status quo that Labour inherited, and they demand that we change it.
Many Reform voters have voted Labour at some point in the past and want to see the government redistribute wealth and opportunity from vested interests. Nigel Farage’s recent conversion to photo-ops with trade unions and support for the welfare state demonstrate this. He understands the complex coalition he is attempting to assemble, even if he doesn’t believe in the prescription that coalition demands to address the various crises our country faces.
Those who vote Lib Dem or Green are not generally obsessed with identity politics or opposed to controlling our borders.
We should not write either group of voters off by failing to look beneath the complexities of surface level analysis.
As the late Jo Cox said, “We have far more in common than that which divides us.” This is as true in the daily lives of our constituents as it is for those of us who spend all our time thinking about politics.
The party that wins elections is the party that appeals to the values that unite people across our political divisions: equality, fairness, opportunity, and respect for the rule of law.
This is how we won in 2024, and it is how we will win again in the future.
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