New poll confirms Labour’s worst fears in Scotland

Labour's problems in Scotland show few signs of improving tonight, after a ComRes poll for ITV News showed 28 of their 40 Scottish seats were set to go to the SNP.

The survey of Labour-held seats predicted a massive 19-point swing from Labour to the SNP, which would rob it of most of its Scottish constituencies on a uniform swing.

Thirty per cent of those who voted Labour in 2010 are now prepared to vote SNP. The party is particularly popular among the young, with 18-34-year-old voters splitting 46% for the SNP and 32% for Labour. Those aged 55 and older split the other way, with 44% for Labour and 36% for the SNP.

Most voters in Labour-held constituencies want the SNP to help Labour rather than the Conservatives in the event of a hung parliament.

The preferred option is for no formal arrangement to be made – a view supported by 41% of respondents.

Twenty-one per cent want the SNP to support a minority Labour government, which is the same number as those who want a formal coalition.
Supporters of independence are significantly more likely to want an agreement with Labour.

The main reason for wanting to vote SNP remains a commitment to an independent Scotland, with 56% picking this option. But a substantial minority – 35% said they were motivated by the fact Labour "no longer represents people like me".