There exists no survival guide for meeting Donald Trump — no applicable chapter in the Foreign Office’s diplomatic playbook. Trumpism is the negation of rules, precedent and consensus. Keir Starmer, of course, will have studied intensively for his tête-à-tête in Washington. But intentionally or otherwise, Trump will trek far beyond his counterpart’s comfort zone when they meet in the White House at around 17.15 UK time.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president who journeyed to Washington on Monday, has spent years honing his relationship with the US president — and mastering the machismo it requires. Trump’s diplomacy is famous for its raw, brute physicality: the hand-holding; the unyielding, white-knuckle handshake; the full body yank; the knee slaps; the back pats.
Most observers would conclude that Macron rose to the challenge on Monday; he even rested his hand on the US president’s unguarded forearm to signal a coming interruption. The French president fact-checked Trump in real time, correcting his mischaracterisation of the nature of European aid to Ukraine. It’s the sort of critical manoeuvre that only a statesman and Trump-whisperer of Macron’s stature could pull off. That said, the jury is very much still out on whether Trump appreciates that sort of public challenge — or whether it is effective for achieving one’s diplomatic objectives. World leaders have won Trump’s disdain for less serious reproofs.
Macron’s display, we can say with reasonable certainty, will not be mimicked by Starmer during the public portion of his Oval Office meeting. And yet the prime minister’s strict script will only serve as a partial road map for the political and rhetorical labyrinth Trump tends to escort foreign leaders through.
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Starmer does have clear aims in Washington — lodestars that will guide his diplomacy. First and foremost, he is expected to push Trump to provide a US “backstop” to prevent Vladimir Putin launching a fresh assault on Ukraine after any peace deal.
The prime minister has said he is prepared to commit British troops to a peacekeeping mission, but he believes that US promises are vital to “deter Putin from coming again”. The US president, however, has said he would not provide security guarantees “beyond very much” — insisting it is for Europeans to protect Ukraine.
On Tuesday, in a move widely interpreted as Starmer seeking to strengthen his hand ahead of his Washington visit, the PM pledged to raise defence spending from its current 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent of the UK’s economic output by 2027. It was a clear and unapologetic response to Trump’s insistence that European leaders must “step up” in the defence of their continent. At the very least, it was a conscious declaration of good faith ahead of Starmer’s trip today. The UK delegation will hope the US president accepts the offering as a sign of seriousness — and not solely of subservience.
It is also expected that Starmer and Trump will discuss trade. Tariffs imposed by Trump on British steel are set to come into force in March — and in a signal of the UK’s priorities, newly installed British ambassador in Washington, Peter Mandelson, insisted the two nations need not “fight over” trade in a speech last night.
There are several other possible sticking points that could shape proceedings in Washington — before, during or after their commencement. The UK government, for instance, is looking for US consent to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Lammy admitted in an interview with ITV News yesterday that Trump has been granted a de facto veto on the deal.
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Meanwhile, Starmer could be forced to contend with the commentary of Trump’s online outriders — MAGA acolytes for whom the UK prime minister is a personification of all that is despicable about European social democracy. Naturally then, Elon Musk’s X feed will warrant some attention once Starmer takes his place in the Oval Office. Another relevant known unknown is just how much Musk has shaped Trump’s thinking as it relates to the UK and Starmer. The Tesla tycoon’s conspiracist invective, and loathing for the British prime minister, is notorious.
But despite Musk’s likely lobbying, Trump has referred to Starmer relatively glowingly when prompted thus far — certainly by the standards set by his efficiency tsar’s online commentary. In recent months, Trump has insisted the prime minister is doing a “very good job” and that the pair have a “very good relationship”.
But avoiding a transatlantic row is not the bar for success Starmer has been set in Washington. He will meet the US president with the security of Ukraine, and potentially even of Europe, on the line — or at least up for negotiation.
Downing Street would downplay the prospect of an immediate triumph when it comes to the thorny issue of a US “backstop”. But tests and traps lie everywhere for Starmer in Washington.
As is so typical in Trump-land, we will probably not know what success or failure looks like until we see it. And then, one way or another, it could be spectacular.
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Conservative MP urges Starmer to address Trump’s ‘childish nonsense’ over Canada
Lunchtime soundbite
‘And you know, taking out a chainsaw isn’t quite my style. But we are stripping away red tape and bureaucracy.’
— Keir Starmer also spoke at the reception at the ambassador’s residence last night. Referring to Elon Musk and his recent appearance alongside the Argentinian president Javier Milei and a chainsaw, the PM delivered the above remark.
Now try this…
‘UK’s Keir Starmer warns Putin will ‘come again’ as he flies into Trump tornado’
Politico: “If there is a cease-fire without a backstop, it will simply give him the opportunity to wait and to come again”, Keir Starmer warned on the flight to Washington DC.
‘Nigel’s gang: Reform’s plan for power’
Via the Spectator’s Katy Balls and James Heale. (Paywall)
‘Ministers and Labour MPs raise concerns over overseas aid cut decision’
Ed Miliband thought to have expressed unease at cabinet meeting while MPs across party have condemned idea, the Guardian reports.
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