New analysis published today reveals that public order offences rose following Covid lockdowns, despite overall crime declining.

The authors of the report “Covid-19 and local crime rates in England and Wales – two years into the pandemic,” published today by LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), find that across England and Wales, the total number of crimes, excluding cybercrime, fell between 2019 and 2021.

But crime hasn’t fallen everywhere – in more than a third (37 per cent) of local areas, crime levels were higher in 2021 than in 2019. The analysis shows that areas with higher crime rates are likely to be those that have high unemployment.

Using detailed data on crimes recorded by police forces in England and Wales, the authors show that rates of robbery, burglary, shoplifting and theft are all lower than before the pandemic.

But the level of violent offences (which includes assault, harassment, and homicides), which had been on the rise for several years before the pandemic, has remained high, and public order offences (such as violent disorder, and drunk and disorderly behaviour) appear to have increased following lockdowns.

Tom Kirchmaier, director of CEP’s policing and crime research group, said: “Lockdowns reduced overall crime rates, but violent crimes remain at high levels – and so make up a larger proportion of the crimes that police are now dealing with. Since crime rates tend to be higher in areas with high unemployment, policies to reduce unemployment would have a positive impact on reducing crime.”

The analysis uses data reported by Police UK, which enables researchers to look in detail at where crimes are committed. These geographical data do not include online fraud and offences.