At the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson delivered for the Conservative Party its largest election victory since 1987 and Margaret Thatcher’s time in office — a genuine landslide after years of coalitions, slim majorities and hung parliaments.
Johnson’s 80-seat majority spoke to the stranglehold the then-PM exercised over British politics in his first year or so in office: Jeremy Corbyn had been vanquished, the “Red Wall” had collapsed, soon Brexit would be “done” and then Britain changed forever by an untrammelled Conservative administration. In 2020, the Labour Party elected remainer-in-chief Sir Keir Starmer as its leader. What could possibly go wrong for the Conservative Party and its buccaneering premier?
Of course, the big-picture story from the last five years of British politics is that things did not play out how Boris Johnson hoped or expected. And as the Conservative Party has declined politically, so too has its majority at Westminster tumbled in turn: having once towered at a nominal 80, Natalie Elphicke’s defection yesterday means the number now stands at a relatively mere 38.
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To put this decline into historical perspective, a drop of 42 figures well above John Major’s net MP loss from 1992-97; the then-PM’s 21-seat majority was eventually whittled down to -7. Comparatively, throughout his first term in 1997-2001, Tony Blair’s majority of 177 seats held firm. One key takeaway here, then, is that a shrinking majority is not an indication of a party in strong health.
The below analysis by Politics.co.uk means you can relive the gradual decay of the Johnson 2019 majority, sleaze scandal by sleaze scandal, defection by defection, by-election routing by by-election routing…
Where have so many Conservative MPs gone?
- Whip lost/resigned over sleaze related matter: 12
- Defection: 3
- Resigned over loyalty to Boris Johnson (incl. Boris Johnson): 3
- Whip lost over public comments: 3
- Death: 1
- Resigned over policy disagreement: 1
- Other (Hancock’s I’m a Celeb stint): 1
A chronology of Conservative chaos
6 May 2021 – Hartlepool by-election
After the resignation of Labour MP Mike Hill under the cloud of scandal on 16 March 2021, politics prepared for a by-election in one of the few “Red Wall” seats Labour retained at the 2019 general election.
The result was victory for Conservative candidate Jill Mortimer, who became Boris Johnson’s newest MP on 6 May 2021.
- Labour MPs: -1
- Conservative MPs: +1
- Conservative Majority: 82
25 May 2021 – Rob Roberts has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 25 May 2021, an independent panel found that Rob Roberts had acted inappropriately after he sought to engage in a relationship with a member of his staff.
No 10’s official spokesman later confirmed that Roberts had had the Conservative whip suspended.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative Majority: 80
17 June 2021 – Chesham and Amersham by-election (death)
On 17 June 2021, a by-election was held in the constituency of Chesham and Amersham, following the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan on 4 April 2021.
The Liberal Democrat candidate, Sarah Green, won the by-election with 56.7 per cent of the vote and a swing from the Conservatives of 25.2 per cent.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Liberal Democrat MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 78
18 June 2021 – Imran Ahmad Khan has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 18 June 2021, Imran Ahmad Khan had the party whip withdrawn; he was subsequently expelled from the party following his criminal conviction for child sexual assault in 2022. He resigned as an MP on 3 May 2022, triggering a by-election.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 76
5 November 2021 – Owen Paterson resigns (sleaze related)
On 5 November 2021, Owen Paterson resigned as MP for the constituency. A few weeks prior, the parliamentary commissioner for standards found that he had breached paid advocacy rules in relation to two companies which employed him as a paid consultant.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Conservative majority: 75
16 December 2021 – North Shropshire by-election
On 16 December 2021, a by-election for the constituency of North Shropshire was held — triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson.
The by-election was won by Helen Morgan, with a 34 per cent swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.
- Liberal Democrat MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 74
19 January 2022 – Christian Wakeford defects (defection)
On 19 January 2022, Christian Wakeford confirmed that he had submitted a letter of no confidence in Johnson following the “Partygate” scandal. Later that day, it was announced that Wakeford had joined the Labour Party.
He became the first sitting Conservative MP to defect to Labour since Quentin Davies in 2007.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 72
2 April 2022 – David Warburton has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 2 April 2022, David Warburton, the MP for Somerton and Frome, was suspended from the parliamentary party pending the outcome of an investigation by parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme into allegations relating to sexual harassment, which were later withdrawn.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 70
29 April 2022 – Neil Parish has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
Neil Parish, the Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, had the whip suspended on 29 April 2022 after he was reported as opening a pornographic video in the House of Commons.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 68
23 June 2022 – Tiverton and Honiton by-election
On 23 June 2022, a by-election for the constituency of Tiverton and Honiton was held — caused by the resignation of Neil Parish.
The election was won by Richard Foord of the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative majority of 24,239 in the 2019 general election was reported at the time to have been the largest majority ever overturned in a by-election.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Liberal Democrat MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 68
23 June 2022 – Wakefield by-election
On 23 June 2022, a by-election for the constituency of Wakefield was held — triggered by the resignation of Imran Khan.
The election was won by Simon Lightwood of the Labour Party, and was the first by-election gain made by Labour since 2012.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 68
1 July 2022 – Chris Pincher has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 1 July 2022, Chris Pincher was suspended as a Conservative MP following news he would be investigated by parliament’s complaints watchdog after allegations he drunkenly groped two men.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 66
1 November 2022 – Matt Hancock has Conservative whip withdrawn (other/to eat kangaroo penis)
On 1 November 2022, Matt Hancock had the Conservative whip suspended after it emerged he was entering the Australian jungle for I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 64
7 December 2022 – Julian Knight has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 7 December 2022, Julian Knight had the Conservative whip removed following a complaint about him to the Metropolitan police.
The MP for Solihull in the West Midlands, who chaired the House of Commons digital, culture, media and sport select committee at the time, said he had been targeted by unfounded rumours, and potentially blackmail.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 62
11 January 2023 – Andrew Bridgen has Conservative whip withdrawn (public comments)
On 11 January 2023, Andrew Bridgen lost the Conservative Party whip after he provoked widespread fury among colleagues and elsewhere by referencing the Holocaust in a tweet about the use of Covid vaccine.
He sat as an MP for the Reclaim Party from 10 May 2023 until 20 December 2023
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs (before joining Reclaim): +1
- Conservative majority: 60
5 April 2023 – Scott Benton has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 5 April 2023, Scott Benton, the MP for Blackpool South, lost the Conservative Party whip after he was caught in a lobbying sting by The Times newspaper.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 58
9 June 2023 – Boris Johnson resigns (loyalty to Boris Johnson)
On 9 June 2023, Boris Johnson announced he would be standing down immediately as a Conservative MP after an investigation into the Partygate scandal found he misled parliament and recommended a lengthy suspension from the House of Commons.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Conservative majority: 57
10 June 2023 – Nigel Adams resigns (loyalty to Boris Johnson)
On 10 June 2023, Nigel Adams, MP for Selby and Ainsty, announced he would immediately stand down. Adams was a long-standing ally of Boris Johnson.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Conservative majority: 56
20 July 2023 – Somerton and Frome by-election
On 20 July 2023, a by-election for the constituency of Somerton and Frome took place, following the resignation of David Warburton.
The seat was won by the Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Dyke.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Liberal Democrat MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 56
20 July 2023 – Selby and Ainsty by-election
On July 2023, a by-election was held in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, following the resignation of Nigel Adams.
Keir Mather of the Labour Party won the seat, setting a record for the largest majority ever overturned by the party in a by-election.
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 55
20 July 2023 – Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election
On July 2023, a by-election for the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip was held, following the resignation of Boris Johnson as its MP.
The Conservative Party’s candidate, Steve Tuckwell, held the seat with a reduced majority of 495 votes.
- Conservative MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 56
26 August 2023 – Nadine Dorries resigns (loyalty to Boris Johnson)
On 26 August 2023, Nadine Dorries resigned from the House of Commons, more than two months after pledging to go “with immediate effect”.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Conservative majority: 55
12 October 2023 – Lisa Cameron defects
On 12 October 2023, SNP MP Lisa Cameron announced she had defected to the Conservatives.
- SNP MPs: -1
- Conservative MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 57
17 October 2023 – Peter Bone has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 17 October 2023, Peter Bone was stripped of the Conservative whip after he was found by the commons Independent Expert Panel to have bullied and harassed a member of staff.
Bone denied the claims against him and said the investigation was “flawed” and “procedurally unfair”.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 55
19 October 2023 – Tamworth by-election
On 19 October 2023, a by-election was held for the constituency of Tamworth, following the resignation of Chris Pincher.
Sarah Edwards, the Labour candidate, won the Tamworth seat with a 23.9 per cent swing, the second-biggest from Conservative to Labour since the 1945 national election.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 55
19 October 2023 – Mid Bedfordshire by-election
On 19 October 2023, a by-election took place in the constituency of Mid Bedfordshire, following the resignation of Nadine Dorries.
The election was won by Alistair Strathern of the Labour Party — the first Labour victory in the seat since its creation in 1918.
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 54
26 October 2023 – Crispin Blunt has Conservative whip withdrawn (sleaze related)
On 26 October 2023, Crispin Blunt had the Conservative whip withdrawn following his arrest on suspicion of rape and possession of drugs.
It came as Blunt issued a statement on Twitter/X vowing to clear his name.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 52
4 November 2023 – Bob Stewart resigns Conservative whip (public comments)
On 4 November 2023, Bob Stewart surrendered the Conservative whip while he considered appealing against his conviction for a racially aggravated public order offence.
On 23 February 2024, Stewart successfully appealed his conviction.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 50
5 January 2024 – Chris Skidmore resigns Conservative whip (policy disagreement)
On 5 January 2024, Chris Skidmore announced he would be resigning as an MP in protest at the government’s plan for further oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
In a resignation statement, he said: “I can also no longer condone nor continue to support a government that is committed to a course of action that I know is wrong and will cause future harm. To fail to act, rather than merely speak out, is to tolerate a status quo that cannot be sustained. I am therefore resigning my party whip and instead intend to be free from any party-political allegiance.”
He officially resigned as an MP on 8 January 2024.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs (prior to Skidmore’s prompt resignation): +1
- Conservative majority: 48
15 February 2023 – Kingswood by-election
On 15 February 2024, a by-election took place in the constituency of Kingswood in South Gloucestershire, following the resignation of Chris Skidmore.
The election was won by Damien Egan of the Labour Party with a 16 per cent swing.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 48
15 February 2024 – Wellingborough by-election
On 15 February 2024, a by-election took place in the constituency of Wellingborough, following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone.
The by-election was won by Gen Kitchen of the Labour Party. It was the biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the 1994 Dudley West by-election.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 48
24 February 2024 – Lee Anderson has Conservative whip withdrawn (public comments)
On 24 February 2024, Lee Anderson was stripped of the Conservative whip after he refused to apologise for remarks about Sadiq Khan on GB News that the London mayor described as “Islamophobic, anti-Muslim and racist”.
He has sat as an MP for Reform UK since 11 March 2024.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs (before joining Reform): +1
- Conservative majority: 46
9 April 2024 – William Wragg resigns Conservative whip (sleaze related)
On 9 April 2024, William Wragg resigned the Conservative party whip days after admitting to giving out colleagues’ personal phone numbers to someone he had met on a dating app.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 44
17 April 2024 – Mark Menzies resigns Conservative whip (sleaze related)
On 17 April 2024, Mark Menzies agreed to relinquish the Conservative Party whip over allegations he misused campaign funds and demanded thousands of pounds from an aide to pay off “bad people” in the middle of the night.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Independent MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 42
27 April 2024 – Dan Poulter defects (defection)
On 27 April 2024, former health minister Dr Dan Poulter defected to Labour in frustration at the worsening NHS crisis.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 40
2 May 2024 – Blackpool South by-election
On 2 May 2024, a by-election took place in the constituency of Blackpool South, following the resignation of incumbent MP Scott Benton.
The by-election was won by Chris Webb of the Labour Party with a 26% swing.
- Independent MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 40
8 May 2024 – Natalie Elphicke defects (defection)
On 8 May 2024, Natalie Elphicke defected to the Labour Party, saying the Conservatives “have become a byword for incompetence and division”.
- Conservative MPs: -1
- Labour MPs: +1
- Conservative majority: 38
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on X/Twitter here.
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