Michael Portillo

‘Portillo moments’ to be prominent feature of election night, says Michael Portillo

Michael Portillo has said that several senior Conservative candidates could “suffer the same fate” as he did in 1997 on the 4th of July.

Portillo, a former Conservative cabinet minister, had been considered as a potential future party leader and prime minister, before he shockingly lost his seat at the 1997 election.

Portillo’s loss of his Enfield Southgate constituency in North London became the defining symbol of New Labour’s landslide win.

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Since 1997, scalps of high-profile politicians at elections are discussed in reference to this original “Portillo moment”.

Speaking to GB News, the former defence secretary said the Conservative Party’s “confused” election messaging could lead voters to “shut their ears” and stop listening to the party.

He added: “It seems that many Conservative incumbents could suffer the same fate [as me]. They know already that over the last five years of Tory government people have ceased to listen to what their party has to say.

“I rather assume that whilst half the party talks of winning and the other half warns of an upcoming Labour super majority the voters will shut their ears to both.”

Recent “mega” MRP polls have found that a number of high-profile Conservatives risk being ousted at the general election. 

A YouGov survey earlier this month found that twelve of the ministers who sit around the cabinet table are set to be kicked out, with the Conservatives losing 225 of the seats they won in 2019, dropping to just 140.

In this eventuality, cabinet casualties would include Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Esther McVey, Mel Stride, Victoria Pentis, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.

Best for Britain, the anti-Conservative campaign group, is aiming to inflict the “heaviest possible election defeat” on the 4th of July by advising people to vote tactically.

Best for Britain revealed its tactical voting recommendations in more than 450 constituencies on Monday, proposing support for Labour in 370 seats, the Liberal Democrats in 69, the Green Party in three, the SNP in seven and Plaid Cymru in two.

Based on the latest MRP polling, Best for Britain predicts that potential Conservative leadership contenders Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly could all lose their seats if voters vote tactically.

The organisation added that tactical voting could mean that prime minister Rishi Sunak and his predecessor Liz Truss are also potential casualties, together with former home secretaries Suella Braverman and Dame Priti Patel.

In Sunak’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton, where Best of Britain is encouraging residents to back Labour, the organisation reported that 40 per cent of people are prepared to vote tactically for a change of government.

Meanwhile, in chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s seat of Godalming and Ash, where 45 per cent say they would vote tactically, the advice is to vote Liberal Democrat.

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