The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the United Kingdom’s independent fiscal watchdog. It is a non-departmental public body tasked with providing independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances.

The OBR was established in 2010 with the primary objective of removing any political biases and possible prejudices from fiscal forecasting. Its analysis forms the basis for the government’s budget plans.

The judgments made by the OBR are the responsibility of its three-person leadership body, the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC).

The responsibilities of the OBR

The responsibilities of the OBR are set out in primary legislation (the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 and Budget Responsibility Act 2024), and a series of updated frameworks which are handed down by the government. The Charter for Budget Responsibility, required by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011, sets out the government’s approach to fiscal policy and the OBR’s specific remit.

The OBR itself cites five main roles that it performs. They are as follows:

Economic and fiscal forecasting

The OBR produces detailed five-year forecasts for the UK economy and the public finances. The details of the forecasts are set out in the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). These are published twice a year, typically alongside the government’s spring statement/budget and autumn statement/budget. They form the basis of the government’s fiscal planning.

Evaluating government performance against fiscal targets

It provides an independent assessment of whether the government is on track to meet its own, self-imposed fiscal rules. These rules can be edited by incumbent governments, but they typically involve targets for controlling public sector debt and borrowing.

Sustainability analysis

The OBR assesses the long-term health of the public finances. It publishes an annual Fiscal Risks and Sustainability (FRS) report, which examines potential threats to fiscal stability.

Evaluation of fiscal risks

The OBR, with its FRS report, reviews risk in the economy and financial system as a whole.

Scrutiny of policy costings

The OBR scrutinises the government’s costings for every individual tax and welfare spending measure announced at a fiscal event. It has the power to challenge the government’s figures, thereby sending the government back to the drawing board if it believes officials have overestimated the savings/revenue generated by a particular fiscal measure. The Welfare Trends Report (WTR), published once every two years, examines the drivers of welfare spending.

Creation and development of the OBR

The OBR was created by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010. Prior to its existence, HM Treasury was responsible for producing the official economic forecasts that underpinned its own budgets.

This system was criticised for allowing the government of the day to present overly optimistic forecasts. The creation of an independent body was intended to provide a more credible foundation for fiscal policy.

The significance of the OBR in the UK’s fiscal policy was illustrated by the financial and political turmoil that followed the so-called “mini-budget” of September 2022.

The major fiscal package, unveiled by Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor, announced £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts, including the abolition of the 45p top rate of income tax. In a highly unorthodox move, the government, led by Liz Truss as prime minister, chose not to commission or publish an accompanying economic and fiscal forecast from the OBR.

Almost immediately, the 23 September package provoked a market meltdown. The value of sterling fell sharply, and the cost of government borrowing (gilt yields) soared. The absence of an independent assessment of the mini-budget is said to have intensified market fears about the fiscal package.

The Bank of England was forced to launch an emergency intervention to buy government bonds and stabilise the market. Within weeks, the government was forced to reverse almost all of the announced tax cuts, Kwarteng was dismissed as chancellor, and Truss resigned as prime minister after just 49 days in office.

The Budget Responsibility Act 2024 was passed by the new Labour government elected at the 2024 general election. This law prevents any chancellor from making “fiscally significant” announcements without an accompanying independent forecast from the OBR.

Under the act, a package is fiscally significant “if the measure, or combination of measures, has a costing for a specified period that exceeds a specified percentage of the gross domestic product for a specified period.”

The relevant figure must be “specified” by the Charter for Budget Responsibility.

The Charter for Budget Responsibility published in 2024 states: “A measure or combination of measures is fiscally significant if the measure or combination of measures has a costing that is at least the pounds equivalent of 1% of GDP in any financial year in the forecast period (the ‘threshold’). The threshold applies (separately) to costs and savings.”

Richard Hughes resigned as OBR chair on 1 December 2025, following the accidental early release of the OBR’s publication to accompany the autumn budget 2025. An internal investigation described the leak as “the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR”.

Additional resources

• Office for Budget Responsibility website: https://obr.uk/
• Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2025: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf
• Fiscal risks and sustainability report – July 2025: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-July-2025.pdf
• Charter for Budget Responsibility – Autumn 2024: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/678fbb377bb65baf62c2ada8/Charter_for_Budget_Responsibility_Autumn_2024_Accessible.pdf
• Welfare trends report – October 2024: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Welfare-trends-report-October-2024.pdf