The North Shropshire by-election is no ordinary by-election. Owen Paterson held the seat comfortably for 24 years, but his resignation ignited a crisis for the Conservatives, as they battled November’s MP sleaze row.

Questions over Boris Johnson’s leadership have only intensified in recent days, as leaks of lockdown-breaking parties in 2020 coupled with further Covid-19 restrictions, have destroyed the Conservative’s lead in the polls and risk tearing his party apart.

Nonetheless, losing North Shropshire would be momentous. The Conservatives held the seat with a 62.7% share of the vote in 2019. Could recent events really be their downfall in this once true-blue constituency?