The Liberal Party secured one of the most dramatic by-election victories in modern British history on 14 March 1962 in the Kent constituency of Orpington. The Liberal candidate, Eric Lubbock, overturned a Conservative majority of 14,760 from the 1959 general election to win the seat by 7,855 votes – a swing of nearly 22%.

The result was a political earthquake that signalled a revival for the Liberal Party and crisis for Harold Macmillan’s Conservative government. The Conservatives had held the seat since its creation in 1945.

The by-election was precipitated by the appointment of Donald Sumner, the Conservative MP for Orpington, as a county court judge. Peter Goldman, who had worked on the 1959 Tory manifesto, was tapped as his successor.

Goldman, however, was criticised during the campaign for living beyond the boundaries of the constituency.

***

The by-election was widely seen as a calculated rebuke to the Macmillan government. Economic anxieties, particularly a government-imposed “pay pause” to curb inflation, had alienated many middle-class voters in commuter belt seats like Orpington.

The result is also seen as the beginning of a political revival for the Liberals. The party reached its lowest ebb in the 1951 general election, winning just six MPs with 2.5% of the national vote. The Liberals, led by Jo Grimond since 1956, increased their share of the vote to 5.9% at the 1959 election. But the party remained with only six MPs.

This trend represented a longer term decline. The last all-Liberal government under H. H. Asquith collapsed into a Liberal-Conservative coalition in May 1915. Asquith’s defenestration at the hands of his former chancellor, David Lloyd George, precipitated a significant Liberal schism which damaged the party for decades.

From 1918 to 1929, Labour steadily supplanted the Liberals as the main progressive or non-Conservative party.

The Liberals suffered further splits upon the formation of the National Government in 1931. The crisis shattered the Liberal Party, which eventually split into three factions over support for the administration and the adoption of protectionist trade policies. In the 1935 general election, just 17 mainstream or “Samuelite” Liberals (after party leader Herbert Samuel) were elected.

Orpington, therefore, marked only the second Liberal by-election victory since 1929.

The result suggested that the party might have arrested its seemingly inexorable decline. It even sparked speculation that the Liberals could re-supplant Labour as Britain’s main non-Conservative Party. Labour had, at this point, lost three general elections in a row in 1951, 1955 and 1959.

Notably, Orpington was also the first by-election result to be covered live on television.

***

In the wake of his victory, Liberal candidate Eric Lubbock declared: “We want more Liberal councils, more Liberal candidates. We must not stop in our efforts to overthrow Tory blunder. There is not a safe Tory seat in the country.”

Jo Grimond, the Liberal leader, said: “It is an incredible result. I must say the first thing that I should like to do is to congratulate Mr Lubbock. It is a wonderful victory.”

Lord Aldington, vice-chairman of the Conservatives, insisted that his party would not be “shaken” by the outcome.

Moreover, Macmillan referred to the result as a “by-election protest”, rejecting the interpretation that voters had overwhelmingly endorsed the Liberal Party.

Speaking on 15 March, the prime minister stated: “I do not blame [the voters]. I am sorry about it, but I understand it. It is a kind of protest.

“Nobody votes Liberal because of the policies of the Liberal Party. They could not because they do not know what they are. They vote Liberal in a by-election because it is a kind of respectable way, without having actually to vote Socialist, of letting off a little steam.

“The Liberal Party is providing at the moment the valuable function of the exhaust pipe in the motor-car. Its policy varies from constituency to constituency.”

The comments were delivered at the annual meeting in London of the Central Council of the National Union of Conservative and Unionist Associations.

But beyond the Conservative party, the result was universally interpreted as significant. It even introduced a new term into the political lexicon, “Orpington Man”, to describe the typically middle-class, white-collar suburban voter who was prepared to abandon the Conservatives. Contemporary commentary characterised this genre of voter as crucial to the outcome of the next general election.

The shock of losing such a supposedly safe seat was a major factor in Macmillan’s decision to conduct a brutal cabinet reshuffle, known as the “Night of the Long Knives”, four months later.

The reshuffle represented an attempt to revitalise his administration. Macmillan’s primary target was the chancellor, Selwyn Lloyd, whose unpopular deflationary economic policy was widely blamed for the government’s slump. Macmillan intended to replace him with Reginald Maudling, who favoured a more expansionist approach.

The speed and scale of the changes shocked Westminster.

Liberal MP Jeremy Thorpe observed that “Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life”.

***

In the end, the Liberal Party won nine seats at the 1964 general election on an 11.2% vote share. The result represented a comeback – but a more limited return than had been presaged in Orpington.

The government’s reflationary policy under Maudling as chancellor has been linked to the relative decline in Liberal fortunes.

Lubbock stood in the 1967 Liberal Party leadership contest. He came second to Thorpe.

The Orpington seat returned to the Conservative column at the 1970 general election. From 2010 to 2019, it was represented by Jo Johnson, the brother of Boris Johnson.