Picture by Edward Massey / CCHQ

Kemi Badenoch is already suffering setbacks as Conservative leader

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The Office for National Statistics has published the latest net migration figures, and it records a 20 per cent fall in long-term net migration between the year ending June 2023 and the year ending June 2024.

The ONS says 728,000 arrived in Britain in the year ending in June, down from 906,000 in the year to June 2023. However, this latter total — a record high — has been revised upwards by a full 166,000 from the initial estimate of 740,000.

The fall in net migration was largely expected, as Mary Gregory, director of population statistics at the ONS, explains: “Over the first six months of 2024, we are also seeing decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is partly related to policy changes earlier this year and is consistent with visa data published by [the] Home Office.”

Gregory also cites the “declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU” and “increases in emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas”.

She adds: “This is likely to be a consequence of the higher numbers of students coming to the UK post-pandemic who are now reaching the end of their courses.”

In this regard, the big surprise in the ONS’ latest tranche of data was the significant revision upwards of migration numbers in the year to 2023. It’s bad news for those seeking to defend the Conservative Party’s record on immigration.

Kemi Badenoch, however — the new Tory leader — is not one of those people. Addressing a Centre for Policy Studies think tank event on Wednesday, Badenoch noted the last government “promised to bring numbers down”, adding remorsefully: “We did not deliver that promise”.

She went on: “As the new party leader I want to acknowledge that we made mistakes. Yes, some of these problems are long standing — this is a collective failure of political leaders from all parties over decades — but on behalf of the Conservative party it is right that I as the new leader accept responsibility, and say truthfully we got this wrong.”

Badenoch revealed she has instructed her team to develop new policies, including a strict cap on net migration. “We will review every policy, treaty and part of our legal framework”, she pledged, “including the ECHR and the Human Rights Act”. The speech marked the beginning of process which, Badenoch hopes, will culminate in the full restoration of the Conservative Party’s credibility on immigration control — both legal and illegal.

The Conservatives’ political errors on migration are, of course, familiar. From 2010-2024, a litany of broken promises fuelled Nigel Farage’s rise and allowed Keir Starmer, whom Tories castigated as a soft lefty lawyer, to co-opt Conservative ground.

Migration, more than anything, provided the political impetus behind the lethal pincer manoeuvre the Conservatives suffered last election. Indeed, centre-right think tank Onward’s report into the election, Breaking Blue, revealed that immigration was the most widely cited area of policy dissatisfaction among both Reform and Liberal Democrat defectors.

Illegal immigration, in particular, became a symbol of the Conservatives’ incompetence and impotence. For the Tory base, no issue proved so politically visceral as the government’s inability to stem small boat crossings, despite its incessant — and in hindsight imprudent — pledges. As such, with the Conservative Party now seeking to restore its reputation as a party of competence, migration is the obvious place to start.

But today’s new statistics, which record a net 906,000 arriving in the year to June 2023, have given the Conservative Party’s opponents — intent on stymying Badenoch’s nascent comeback process — a great deal more ammunition.

After all, Badenoch apologised yesterday for high net migration under the Conservatives. Today, net migration under the Conservatives was revised up. She’s going to need a bigger apology.

Labour was the quickest of the major parties to respond to the news. Referring to Badenoch’s speech yesterday, a party spokesperson said: “In their own words, the Tories broke the immigration system. On their watch, net migration quadrupled in four years to a record high of nearly one million, despite saying they’d lower it to 100,000.”

But the more instructive intervention came from Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who had cannily organised a press conference for 11.30 am. Addressing journalists, the former UKIP chief referred to today’s migration numbers as “horrendous”.

Farage added: “Let’s get [this] into our heads: in 2023, under a Conservative government, nearly 1 million net people came into our country. This, after manifestos in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 promising, in the first three, they’d reduced the numbers to tens of thousands a year, and in the last one, a substantial reduction.

“I have had enough of being lied to by the Conservative Party.”

But the press conference possessed a wider purpose; not only did Reform chairman Zia Yusuf announce the party has reached the 100,000 members milestone — Farage also unveiled former Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns as his latest recruit.

Dame Andrea, it was announced, will be standing as Reform’s candidate for the newly created post of mayor of Greater Lincolnshire at the upcoming local elections.

Jenkyns told the Reform presser: “The truth is undeniable: the ship is sinking and perhaps, sadly, beyond salvage. Enough is enough. It is time to step aboard a movement with vision and purpose and the courage to fight for Britain’s future.”

The loss of Jenkyns is not, in of itself, a huge problem for Kemi Badenoch — or even, intrinsically, a setback on her bid to “renew” Conservatism. But one suspects that Jenkyns will not be the last ex-Tory MP to defect to Reform this parliament.

The former minister will be one of many erstwhile MPs who backed Robert Jenrick during the leadership election and believes the Tory membership made the wrong choice — at an existential juncture for conservative politics, no less.

Farage has set his sights firmly on the May local elections as a potential moment when Reform can evince serious political progress. For Badenoch, similarly, those elections will be an early test of her ability to thwart the Reform peril.

But today’s events serve as a reminder of just how tall Badenoch’s task is. If Farage can attract a few, or potentially many, former Tory MPs to Reform’s cause over the coming months, Badenoch’s standing as leader and ability to inspire a sense of revival will inevitably deteriorate.

The Conservative Party and Reform’s fortunes will rise and fall inversely this parliament. And right now, at this early but nonetheless integral juncture, Farage has the upper hand.

The Reform chief is a ruthless operator. If he can, he will want to render Toryism irrelevant sooner rather than later this parliament. A strong showing at the local elections in May would naturally facilitate that process.

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