The below content first appeared in Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, subscribe here and never miss this daily briefing.
Millions of voters across England and Wales, ID at the ready, head to the polls for the final time today before the general election. Below are the offices they will be electing representatives to — and which Britain’s political parties want to occupy by the time all votes are counted:
- More than 2,600 council seats across 107 councils in England.
- 11 mayoralties.
- 25 seats on the London Assembly.
- 37 police and crime commissioners.
- The parliamentary constituency of Blackpool South, which holds a by-election.
If that seems like rather a lot, fortunately Politics.co.uk has done an in-depth dive on six key councils — from Hartlepool to Wokingham — which will shape the story of these elections. Read that here. (As for what’s at stake politically, my piece here looks ahead to what could be a dire few days indeed for Rishi Sunak).
In sum, then, Britain is electing a lot of politicians today. But this begs a question: why has political commentary in the long lead-in to the local elections focussed primarily on the fate of just two, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, mayors of the West Midlands and Tees Valley respectively?
An array of columns in recent weeks have implied that the very fate of Rishi Sunak as prime minister relies on his party retaining at least one of these mayoralties. Of course, reports for months have tied the PM’s political future to the local elections more broadly — but as polling day has inched into view, it has been the races for the West Midlands and Tees Valley that have featured above all else.
That commentary has focussed on these two races is even more striking when you consider the full electoral picture. The prevalent political trends in 2024 would suggest that the loss of Conservative councillors en masse is inevitable. To take a broader view still: in 1979, 1997 and 2010 — the previous three transitions of power at Westminster — the party approaching power made significant gains at the lead-in local elections.
In this way, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, both local election gurus, wrote for the Local Government Chronicle last month that Sunak’s party could lose 500 seats if it repeats its poor 2023 local election performance, when its national vote share fell below 30 per cent. Nevertheless, the question vexing Westminster above all others in recent weeks has not been “How many councillors will the Conservatives lose?”, but rather: “Can the party hang on in the West Midlands and Tees Valley?”.
One way of looking at the local elections’ framing is that the Conservative Party has conducted a canny expectation-management operation. Briefings from Conservative politicians to journalists have focussed on the fates of Houchen and Street above all — as opposed to the likely more revealing races being held at the council level.
Indeed, Houchen and Street strut into polling day on relatively strong footings; they are both said to be well-liked locally and have conducted uber-personal campaigns. Houchen, who was re-elected as Tees Valley mayor in 2021 with a vote share of 72.8 per cent, once again looks like a shoo-in. Street’s race will be tighter, but it remains winnable for the nominally Conservative candidate. (Note Street and Houchen barely refer to the Tory brand in their election material. Street’s pamphlets even boast a green and purple colour palette).
Now, compare the position of Street or Houchen to that of the average Conservative candidate, who doesn’t possess any significant name recognition and can, therefore, only assume their fortunes will be tied to the reputation of the national Conservative Party. (That hasn’t stopped some councillors from trying, though; in Dorset, the party group has tried to detach itself from the tarnished national Tory brand by restyling as “Local Conservatives”).
One takeaway here, then, is that CCHQ has learnt from the local elections last year when the Conservative Party outshot its own dire expectation management — surpassing then-chairman Greg Hands’ predicted 1000 councillor losses.
But spin, at the end of the day, can only ever be a distraction tactic. In this way, will a victory for Houchen really steal the limelight from the dire national picture for the Conservative Party, which looks set to lose hundreds of councillors? What about the race for the new York and North Yorkshire mayoralty — in theory the truest of true blue territory — which polls suggest will elect a Labour mayor?
The bottom line is this: victory for Ben Houchen in Tees Valley won’t save Sunak. Indeed, should the PM really be welcoming such an illustration of how a Conservative can win in the current landscape? That is, by entirely distancing oneself from his No 10 operation.
Your local elections digest
A bitter reckoning for Rishi Sunak: what’s at stake in the May 2 local elections?
Lunchtime briefing
SNP leadership race: John Swinney announces bid to replace Humza Yousaf
Local elections: Keir Starmer urges voters to ‘turn the page’ on Conservative ‘chaos’
Penny Mordaunt dismisses rumours she will be ‘installed’ in No 10 after local elections
Lunchtime soundbite
‘We just can’t go on as we are today’
— Taking questions from the media after declaring his candidacy for the SNP leadership, John Swinney appears to reject the suggestion he is the “continuity candidate” in the race. More here.
Now try this…
‘Tories’ top mayor disowns Rishi Sunak on eve of poll’
The Independent’s David Maddox reports.
‘UK Tories pretend they’re not Tories to win’
Politico’s Esther Webber writes that, as voters head to the polls in local elections, Conservative candidates are trying to distance themselves from the party’s toxic brand.
‘Rishi Sunak eyes “greatest comeback in political history”’
The Times’s Steven Swinford reports. (Paywall)
On this day in 2023:
Keir Starmer ‘confident’ Sue Gray did not break rules ahead of update on her new Labour party role
