Ethnic minorities soar in number – and they don’t vote Tory
Ethnic minorities will make up nearly a third of people in Britain by 2050, according to a new report.
The Policy Exchange document will make worrying reading for the Conservatives, as it shows ethnic minorities still mostly refuse to lend the party their support.
"The face of Britain has changed and will keep changing over the next 30 years," Rishi Sunak, a co-author of the report, said.
"These communities will continue to become an ever more significant part of Britain, especially in future elections."
Indians are the most likely to lend the Conservatives their support but even then only 17% of them identify with the party.
They are joined by nine per cent of Pakistanis, eight per cent of Bangladeshis, seven per cent of black Caribbeans and four per cent of black Africans.
The report strengthens the hand of Tory modernising groups like Bright Blue, which want the party to appeal to young and ethnic minority voters.
In 2010, the Tories won just 16% per of that ethnic minority vote and critics say recent policies, such as the 'go home' vans, will have done little to improve that result in 2015.
Research by British Future suggested David Cameron could have secured a majority if ethnic minority voters had supported the Tories in equal numbers to their white counterparts.
"Among ethnic minority voters the Conservatives' brand problem exists in a more intense form," Tory polling experts Michael Ashcroft wrote.
"For many of our participants – by no means all, it is important to state – there was an extra barrier between them and the Conservative party directly related to their ethnic background."
Republicans in the US have faced similar problems securing the minority vote, particularly after delivering a relentlessly anti-immigration message following George Bush.
Many analysts suggested the failure to secure ethnic minority votes cost Mitt Romney the last election.
The boost in ethnic minority numbers is primarily due to higher birth rates.
A quarter of children aged under ten in Britain are from ethnic minorities. By contrast, 95% of people aged over 60 are white.
The average British Bangladeshi is 22 years old but among white Britons the median age is 39.
The report shows that the phenomenon of ethnic minority 'Britishness' has not changed.
It has long been noted that ethnic minorities are more comfortable with the identity of 'British' than 'English'.
'English' is given as their sole identy by 64% of white people but just 12% of Indians, 15% of Pakistanis and 26% of black Caribbeans.
But 71% of Bangladeshis consider themselves British, as do 63% of Pakistanis and 58% of Indians.
Only 14% of white people considered themselves British.