Over 21 million UK adults obese by 2040

4 in 10 UK adults obese by 2040

New analysis from Cancer Research UK has estimated that by 2040 more than 21 million UK adults will be obese, a staggering increase of over 6 million – meaning almost 4 in 10 (36 per cent) of the UK adult population will be obese.

The analysis published today also suggests that if current overweight and obesity trends continue, the number of UK adults who are overweight or obese may reach around 7 in 10 (71 per cent) of people by 2040 or 42 million people.

Today’s report follows a recent decision by the Government to ditch its commitment to restrict junk food marketing and volume-based price promotions – a key pillar to its obesity strategy and commitment to tackling health disparities.

Overweight and obesity increases the risk of at least 13 different types of cancer – these projections are a stark warning to Government of the cost of inaction.

Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, said: “These projections should serve as a wake-up call to the Government about the state of our nation’s health. Ministers mustn’t keep kicking the can down the road when it comes to tackling the obesity crisis – delaying measures that will lead to healthier food options. I urge them to revisit this decision and take bold action on obesity, the second biggest preventable risk factor for cancer in the UK.”

“The report also shows a stark and growing difference between obesity rates in those that are least well off and most well off. The upcoming Health Disparities White Paper offers the Government a real opportunity to level up the nation, and make sure fewer people hear the devastating words ’you have cancer’.”

Alarmingly, the report also indicates that the number of people who are obese could overtake the number who are a healthy weight in the UK by 2040. This ‘tipping point’ could happen as early as the late 2020s for the UK as a whole and England, with Northern Ireland following suit in the late 2030s. For Scotland and Wales, the crossover is not expected to happen before 2040.

The report also suggests those experiencing higher levels of deprivation could suffer the most. Showing in England in 2019, 35 per cent of people living in the most deprived areas were obese and this is estimated to increase to almost half (46 per cent) by 2040. In comparison, 22 per cent of people living in the least deprived areas were obese in 2019 and this is estimated to increase to 25 per cent.

Every year around 22,800 cases of cancer in the UK are due to overweight and obesity. More research is needed to understand the link between obesity and cancer. But as obesity rates rise, Cancer Research UK is extremely concerned cancer rates will also increase.

Dr Julie Sharp, head of health and patient information at Cancer Research UK, said: “Obesity is a complex issue and the world around us can make it very difficult to keep a healthy weight.

“Government action is key in making sure that the healthy option is readily available and affordable for people and addressing the wider barriers that prevent people from living healthy lives. If these staggering trends continue, obesity will eclipse smoking as the biggest cause of cancer.”