New analysis suggests that ‘progressive alliance’ can deny a Conservative party majority at next election
According to recent analysis by the political advocacy group “Best for Britain”, opposition parties can overturn the present Conservative majority by fielding unity candidates in 154 English seats at the next election.
The study employs the same polling technique – multilevel regression and post-stratification or MRP – which correctly predicted the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016 and the surprise win for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party in Canterbury in 2017.
As part of its analysis, Best for Britain surveyed 12,816 people across the country to predict how people in different areas, across social divides and income and age groups, would vote.
If the research is correct, high profile Conservative casualties would include: Jacob Rees-Mogg in North East Somerset, Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said this analysis was evidence that parties on the left should abandon their grievances and to work together: “In 2017 and 2019, parties on the right chose not to fight each other in key marginals, and will likely to do so again. This polling shows that opposition parties must do the same”.
“Refusal by Labour and the Lib Dem leadership to cooperate, form [a] government and deliver change is failing the people and communities these parties seek to represent”.
Best for Britain argues such cooperation would only be necessary for one general election if a new government then introduced voting reform.