Ukip

The euroesceptic party has a tendency to do far better in local and European elections than it ever does in Westminster. The party briefly had an MP in 2008, when Tory Bob Spink quit the party. He soon clarified he was independent, only backing Ukip on foreign policy issues.

Conservative difficulties over the Lisbon treaty appeared to offer Ukip an opportunity to make progress in Westminster at the 2010 general election. David Cameron had promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty if it had not been ratified when/if he became prime minister. But the treaty was ratified and after several days of rumours about the Conservative response Cameron called a press conference. Cameron promised he would act in government to ensure no further powers could be transferred from Britain without a referendum by the British people. For some euroesceptics, it was enough. For others, there was Ukip.

Ukip's problem had been that Tory voters would launch their protests and vote Ukip during local and European elections, but return to the Conservative fold in the general. The party's leadership felt this betrayal of Cameron's "cast iron guarantee" could finally see them translate their local and European success to Westminster.

But the leadership - seemingly in an endless state of flux - was undergoing another change. The party's charismatic leader, Nigel Farage, announced he would step down in September so he could concentrate on becoming an MP. He was replaced by Lord Pearson of Rannoch.

Farage ran against John Bercow, the Speaker. Analysts who believed it was unlikely Farage could take the seat were proved right. They could not have predicted Farage's dramatic air crash on election day, in which he was lucky to escape with his life. He returned to the party's leadership after Lord Pearson stood down, not having been able to discuss the contents of his party's manifesto.