Climate Change

What is climate change?

Climate change, or global warming, is a natural phenomenon observed throughout the earth's history. However, in the last century, concern has grown at the pace that climate change has been progressing, particularly because of human activity aggravating and distorting natural processes.

Climate change is widely believed to be caused by increased levels of polluting gases in the atmosphere, therefore leading to a 'greenhouse effect'. The main source of pollution is carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, attributable to traffic and industry.

In simplest terms, the 'greenhouse effect' occurs because pollutant gases in the atmosphere trap the sun's energy on earth. This blanket of gases acts in the same way as the glass roof of a greenhouse, allowing the sun's energy to pass through it to reach the earth, but preventing some of the energy from escaping.

The impact of this process is a general increase in average global temperatures.

In the short term, climate change can and has led to increased flooding, drought, famine and eradication of plant and animal species, among other effects. In the long-term, scientists have warned that global warming has the potential to cause catastrophic consequences for the planet.


Background

The issue of climate change was first considered on the international stage at the United Nations conference on Sustainable Development in Stockholm in 1972.

It has subsequently formed the main focus of world summits on sustainable development in Rio in 1992, and in Johannesburg in 2002. This underscores the common perception that climate change is the most serious environmental challenge facing modern society.

The United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change was established in 1992 and entered into force on 21 March 1994. The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 is the mechanism for implementing the aims of the Convention. Kyoto committed 'industrialised nations' to reduce their emissions of six greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 per cent below their 1990 levels within a decade.

The Kyoto Protocol has attracted worldwide support, but was somewhat undermined by the failure to attract the support of the United States, the world's most prolific polluter. The Protocol has been revised and refined since its inception through major conferences around the globe.

The failure of the US to ratify the Kyoto protocol has created a great deal of controversy, particularly because, with less than five per cent of the world's population, the US is responsible for 25 per cent of greenhouse gases. The US claimed it is committed to reducing carbon emissions in line with the principle established by the UN Convention but argues that the framework established by the Kyoto Protocol is unsuitable.

The UK has pledged to fulfil the Kyoto protocol and the government laid down a number of domestic strategies to meet its obligations to reduce greenhouse gases.

The principal elements of the UK government's strategy were outlined in the 1998 report, 'A better quality of life, a strategy for sustainable development for the UK', and in the 2003 energy white paper, 'Our energy future- Creating a low carbon economy'. The white paper included a commitment "to put ourselves on a path to cut the UK's carbon dioxide emissions - the main contributor to global warming - by some 60 per cent by about 2050 with real progress by 2020."

Reports in 2003 by a United Nations panel monitoring the UK's performance under the UN Convention suggest the UK is making good progress. The panel revealed the UK is the world's sixth most successful country in reducing man-made climate-changing carbon gas emissions and was on course to meet international targets, having reduced carbon emissions by 12.8 per cent since 1990.

Such commitments, though ambitious, did not appear enough to satisfy a growing awareness about the dangers posed by climate change. In 2006, the economist Nicholas Stern published the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, which looked at the impact of climate change on the world economy. The review said one per cent of global gross domestic product should be invested per annum to avoid the worst consequences of global warming – and avert a 20 per cent drop in potential global GDP.

April 2007 saw the UN's independent panel on climate change publish its third report which warned of much greater impact than previously anticipated. The poorest are the most likely to suffer from the effects of climate change, with rising sea levels, heightened drought risks and negative agricultural impacts all expected to cause more suffering around the world, it warned. A later report warned global temperatures could rise 4C (7.2F) by the end of the century.

March 2007 saw the British government publish the climate change bill, its response to the Stern Review. This piece of draft legislation was hailed as the first of its kind. It committed the UK to a future as a low-carbon economy. Central to the bill was the legally binding target to cut carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050, an unprecedented move.

December 2007 saw the Bali conference on climate change. Delegates were seeking to set an agenda for negotiations on how to replace Kyoto and, after initial deadlock, agreed to set a 2009 deadline for concluding an agreement on measures to reduce pollution. The US had been booed for refusing to commit to EU-led binding targets on reduction targets, but eventually bowed to international pressure.

Next on the international climate change agenda is the G8's meeting in Japan, which experts say will be crucial to establishing a long-lasting deal.


Ongoing controversies

There are a number of obstacles against dealing with climate change: firstly, scientific opinion varies widely on precisely what climate change will or may do; secondly, it is not an issue that any one country or government can address alone, generating a problem of 'free riders'; and thirdly, it demands dramatic changes to patterns of human behaviour and economic activity today for no immediate benefit.

This latter factor presents particular problems for developing countries. They have seen the west achieve its wealth through industrialisation without massive regard for the environmental consequences, but are now being asked by the west to avoid the same methods to economic development.


Statistics

Over the past 100 years global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius and in Europe by about 1.2 degrees Celsius

The 1990s was the warmest decade over the past 150 years (EU environ site)

Temperatures are projected to increase further by 1.4 to 5.8 C by 2100

The UK, with one per cent of the world's population, produces 2.3% of the world's C02

Statistics 1 and 2: (Source: EU Environment Agency); Statistic 3: (Source: Friends of the Earth, 2003)


Quotes

"Global warming, caused by burning fossil fuels, is the worst environmental problem we face today."

Greenpeace, 2003

"In my view, climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism."

David King, UK Government's Chief Scientist, 2003

"The parties should protect the climate for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity, and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities."

Article 3, UN convention on Climate Change, 1992