Three quarters of people expect property prices to fall over the next twelve months according to the first quarterly Price Tracker survey by the Building Societies Association (BSA).
74% of respondents to the Property Price Tracker survey carried out by YouGov for the BSA said that property prices would fall over the next year. 25% thought that prices would fall by 5 to 10%, with the average forecast being a fall of 7.1%5.
The survey found marked regional differences. Welsh people are the most pessimistic, expecting property prices across the UK to fall by 9.1% over the year. But a more positive outlook can be found in Yorkshire and Humberside, where people expect prices to fall by just 4.8%5.
Commenting on the figures, Adrian Coles, Director General of the BSA said:-
"It is clear that the positive outlook that has characterised the property market for the last few years is now a thing of the past, and people expect prices to fall over the next year.
"However, this must be kept in perspective. Property price inflation has been so great over recent years that a 7.1% fall in prices means that most people still have considerable equity in their property5. Moreover, we must never forget that falling house prices mean that first time buyers now have more purchasing power.
"The survey also shows the great differences in anticipated price changes between people in different parts of the country, and shows a clear north / south divide. It emphasises the importance of buyers and sellers looking at their local market place before making decisions rather than concentrating on national headlines."
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Notes to Editor:
1. The Property Price Tracker survey will be repeated each quarter to provide an understanding of how the British public view the housing market. The survey was undertaken by YouGov plc on behalf of the BSA, and supports the Property Tracker research that was published on June 19th. The Property Tracker research can be found at http://www.bsa.org.uk/mediacentre/press/goodtimetobuy.htm
2. All figures are from YouGov plc. Total sample size was 1,987 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 5-9 June 2008. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
3. The next Property Price Tracker survey will be published on 24 September 2008
4. The Building Societies Association (BSA) represents all 59 building societies in the United Kingdom. Building societies have total assets of over £360 billion and, together with their subsidiaries, hold residential mortgages of £250 billion, more than 20% of the total outstanding in the UK. Societies hold about £230 billion of retail deposits, accounting for more than 20% of all such deposits in the UK. Building societies also account for about 38% of all cash ISA balances. Building societies employ over 51,500 full and part-time staff and operate through more than 2,000 branches.
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The BSA's telephone numbers changed on 25th February 2008. My new number is now 020-7520 5903. The fax number is unchanged.
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