Conservative support at strongest for 14 years

Support for the Conservative party is at 40%, a Guardian/ICM poll shows

Wednesday, 20, Dec 2006 12:00

A new poll shows support for the Conservative party is stronger than it has been for 14 years.

David Cameron's party currently enjoys an eight point lead over Labour, according to a Guardian/ICM poll released today.

This gives the Tory party a 40 per cent share of the vote (up three points), seeing Labour support unchanged at 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrat party falling four points to 18 per cent.

This is the lowest percentage the Lib Dems have polled since the summer.

Since Mr Cameron took over as Conservative leader Labour support has averaged 33 per cent, its lowest annual figure since the party last lost a general election in 1992, but pollsters predict this is as low as Labour support will fall.

By contrast, the Conservatives have averaged 37 per cent since Mr Cameron took charge in December 2005. But with the UK's electoral system and current constituency boundaries even at its current rating of 40 per cent the Conservatives do not have enough support to win a majority at the next general election.

But the current poll figures would be enough to make more people think the Conservatives are on course to win the next election - with 37 per cent of the population now predicting a Tory victory, compared with 19 per cent in July 2002.

Outside the three biggest parties, the Greens are set to have the largest impact.

When asked who else they might consider voting for, 32 per cent of Conservative supporters said the Liberal Democrats, 19 per cent said the Green party, and just 14 per cent said Ukip.

Labour supporters are also closer to the Lib Dems (30 per cent), the Conservatives (18 per cent) and Greens (16 per cent) than Ukip (nine per cent).

Nationally, the Green party polled three per cent of the vote, with Ukip on one per cent.