Tories see best poll results since 1992

Tories pass through 40 per cent mark

Friday, 26, Oct 2007 12:00

David Cameron has continued his resurgence against Gordon Brown, with a three point lead over Labour.

Despite a bad summer for the Conservative leader, his party has recovered from an 11-point disadvantage to break through the important 40 per cent barrier.

The latest YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph sees the Tories climb nine points from their lacklustre pre-conference rating to 41 per cent.

Their gain has been exacerbated by a five point drop in support for Labour, who fell to 38 per cent.

Today's poll contrasts sharply with the YouGov poll taken before the Tories headed to Blackpool, when they were placed 11 points behind Labour on 32 per cent.

It marks the first time the party has broken through the crucial 40 per cent barrier in a YouGov poll since 1992.

Although 40 per cent is regarded as the 'election winning' mark, the weighting of the electoral system means today's poll would result in a hung parliament if translated into votes.

A combination of a strong Conservative conference and Mr Brown's mishandling of the phantom election appears to be behind the parties' changing fortunes in the polls.

Polls taken immediately after the Tories returned from Blackpool appeared to show the combination of George Osborne's tax promises and David Cameron's keynote speech had won over voters. This is now supported by today's findings.

The prime minister, meanwhile, has been damaged by his decision not to rule out an autumn election until Labour's poll lead dwindled at the eleventh hour.

Some 52 per cent of respondents agreed Mr Brown had treated the country "like fools" over his insistence the opinion polls had not curtailed an election, while 32 per cent disagreed.

The prime minister is also now seen as less decisive. In May, 52 per cent rated Mr Brown's decision making positively, now down to 39 per cent.

His overall approval rating has fallen from 44 per cent to 34 per cent.

By contrast, Mr Cameron's credibility has been boosted. Last month only 21 per cent thought he made a good leader, now risen to 40 per cent on the back of his well-received conference speech.

Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, told the Daily Telegraph: "This is good news for David Cameron. He has recovered to where he was six to nine months ago, before he had the very bad summer.

"That coincided with Gordon Brown developing this image of being above politics. That has now gone and it is unlikely to be restored. So we are back to the conventional position of mid-terms with a reasonably popular opposition leader and a less popular prime minister.

"However, the big story remains the Lib Dem voters that have gone to the Tories since the last election. The Tories must be hoping that a new leader for them does not change that."

The poll, taken in the wake of Menzies Campbell's resignation as Lib Dem leader, shows the third party have fallen from 15 per cent to 11 per cent.