Tories on 13-point lead over Labour
Tory support on 45 per cent
Monday, 17, Dec 2007 12:00
The next government will be led by David Cameron, according to the latest opinion poll.
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts the Conservatives in reach of a workable Commons majority after struggling to rise above 40 per cent – and the difficulties of a hung parliament - in recent polls.
With Gordon Brown struggling to convince voters of his fight-back, the Conservatives have now climbed to an approval rating of 45 per cent, giving them a 13-point lead over Labour.
On 32 per cent, the government is still faring better than during the last days of Tony Blair - when its approval rating dropped to 27 per cent - but stronger core support is offset by new-found confidence in David Cameron.
Mr Brown may have attempted to build his reputation on a record of economic confidence but he is now suffering as more than half of voters say they are worried or fairly worried about the possibility of a recession next year.
In contrast to a decade which saw voters doubt the Tories' competence, Mr Cameron and George Osborne now have a seven-point lead over Mr Brown and Alistair Darling when voters are asked who will do most for their standard of living.
The Liberal Democrats, who name their new leader tomorrow, are on 14 per cent.
Translated into votes, one estimate claims the latest figures would hand the Conservatives 374 seats and an overall majority of 100.
Labour would lose 120 MPs, leaving them with 227 Commons seats. The majority of Lib Dem MPs would leave Westminster, with just 19 keeping their seats.
Underscoring the loss of confidence in the government is the stark decline in Mr Brown's personal rating.
After polling 48 per cent in August, coining the term the 'Brown bounce', he fell to 39 per cent in September. This dipped further to 30 per cent after October's positive headlines for Mr Cameron at the Conservative's conference.
The "cancelled" autumn election now appears crucial for the prime minister, with his approval rating falling to minus ten in November.
Support for Mr Brown now stands at minus 26 per cent, with commentators openly speculating about his successor.
Mr Cameron is not, however, enjoying a smooth ascendancy, with the Liberal Democrats yesterday ridiculing his attempts to form a "progressive alliance" with liberals and environmentalists.