Summer loving over for Cameron

The 'Brown bounce' bounces Cameron further down the polls.

Wednesday, 19, Sep 2007 12:00

Conservative hopes the 'Brown bounce' had exhausted itself have been dealt a blow by the latest opinion poll which puts Labour on the election-winning 40 per cent benchmark.

A Guardian/ICM poll puts support for Labour up one, extending their lead over the Conservatives, who have slipped two points to 32 per cent.

This is reminiscent of Tory support early in the summer, seemingly cancelling out the effects of David Cameron's assault on NHS cuts and Britain’s "broken society".

Translated into votes, this could see Labour's Commons majority extended with 380 seats.

This week's Liberal Democrat conference appears to have reminded voters they exist, as their support is up two points to 20 per cent.

Sixty-two per cent of voters will definitely vote Labour or pick them second in the next election, 56 per cent are considering the Liberal Democrats and just 50 per cent would pick the Conservatives first or second.

Crucially, the poll was conducted after the Northern Rock crisis began to break. Moreover, Labour's lead as the most trusted party on the economy has grown, in a critical vote of confidence for a prime minister who spent ten years in charge of the Treasury.

The Conservatives' advantage on crime, the environment and taxation also appears to be waning, potentially a result of the often contradictory messages emerging from this summer's policy groups.

More worryingly for David Cameron is his personal rating. The Tory leader is now less popular than Menzies Campbell, both among his own party and the general public.

While 37 per cent of voters are satisfied with Mr Cameron, 45 per cent are dissatisfied. Of those who voted Conservative in 2005, 54 per cent are satisfied with Mr Cameron's leadership.

Sir Menzies Campbell meets with less disapproval, despite questions of his leadership threatening to overshadow this week's conference. Forty-one per cent of voters are dissatisfied with Sir Menzies, compared to 36 per cent who approve.

Mr Brown's approval ratings are not equivalent to the support given to Tony Blair in the first months of his premiership, but are solid with 55 per cent of voters backing him, versus 23 per cent who disapprove of his leadership.

In a further boost to the Lib Dems, more voters are considering voting for them in the next election than the Conservatives.

The poll could revive expectations Mr Brown will use next week's Labour conference to announce a snap autumn election. However, this remains unlikely with ongoing unease in the economy and the spectre of foot and mouth.