Tories set for landslide
The Tories would win by a landslide if there was an election next week
Gordon Brown has ignored the shockwaves caused by the Labour by-election defeat in Glasgow East to insist he is "getting on with the job". |  |
Thursday, 11, Sep 2008 03:47
The Conservative party would inflict the worst electoral defeat on the Labour party since the second world war were there to be a general election next week, a new poll has revealed today.
The poll by YouGov and commissioned by Channel 4 News shows the Conservatives would enjoy a 12 per cent swing in their favour if there was an election now, giving them a majority of 150 seats in the House of Commons and inflicting the worst defeat on Labour since the second world war.
The defeat would be even worse than that inflicted on the Michael Foot-led Labour party in 1983 by Magaret Thatcher.
YouGov questioned 2,144 people in 60 key battleground constituencies on behalf of the news programme.
In its regular programme this evening Channel 4 News is set to say the seats that will decide the next general election are moving to the Tories.
According to the poll, if voters were going to the polls next week, David Cameron would be Britain's new prime minister with a Commons majority of at least 100.
The 60 constituencies targeted by Channel 4 News are those seats where Labour MPs will be defending majorities of between six per cent and 14 per cent at the next general election.
Channel 4 News says these constituencies will determine whether the Tories become Britain's largest party at the next election, and, if so, whether they win outright.
While Labour could afford to lose all its seats where it has a majority of less than six per cent and still remain the largest party in the House of Commons, were the Tories to take the 60 constituencies targeted by the poll they would become the largest party.
And if the Conservatives were to win all the seats where Labour has a majority of up to 14 per cent they would easily have enough of a majority to form the next government.
Channel 4 News and YouGov say that to achieve this the Tories would need a swing of seven per cent in their favour while their current poll indicates a swing of 12 per cent to David Cameron's party. Such a swing would give Mr Cameron a majority of around 150 seats in the Commons if the election were held now.
Jack Straw, the justice secretary, home secretary Jacqui Smith, transport secretary Ruth Kelly and Tony McNulty, the Home Office minister, could all be among the possible Labour casualties were this scenario to come true.
The poll will make grim reading for Gordon Brown and his colleagues as Labour prepares for its conference. It also puts another dent into the prime minister's attempted fightback.
And there is even worse news with the same poll revealing that Labour is seen as divided and its leader seen as a ditherer and out of touch with the wishes of the electorate. Recent attacks by two former home secretaries in the shape of Charles Clarke on BBC Radio 4 last week and David Blunkett in The Sun - stating that Gordon Brown will have to give the speech of his life at the Labour party conference in just over a week - will not have helped give the impression of party unity.
But David Cameron still cannot shake the impression among voters, in the YouGov/Channel 4 poll at least, that he is lightweight and lacks experience. Nor have the Conservatives convinced voters that they are any better at managing the economy or the country than they were when they were last in office in the mid-1990s.
The full report is on Channel 4 News tonight at 19:00BST.