Conservatives set to win Crewe, poll suggests

Sunday, 11 May 2008 12:00 AM

The Conservative party is set to win the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, a new poll suggests today.

Conducted by ICM on behalf of the Mail on Sunday, results from the survey saw 43 per cent in favour of the Tories and 39 per cent for Labour in the north-west constituency.

Not only does this represent a ten per cent swing since the most recent general election, but it suggests that a by-election scheduled for the Labour stronghold in 11 days' time could see the Conservatives victorious.

According to the Mail on Sunday, 54 per cent of 1,004 people polled believe David Cameron would make the best prime minister. Less than a quarter chose Gordon Brown.
And if the poll results were replicated in a general election, Labour would be "thrown out", it suggested.

ICM managing director Nick Sparrow said the results were "significant".

"It indicates that the next general election is there for the Tories to win at present," he added. "In terms of Gordon Brown's ratings, dissatisfaction with his leadership tempts one to think of comments like 'dead man walking' and 'Labour's Iain Duncan Smith'."

A total of ten candidates were nominated to participate in the forthcoming by-election, which followed the unexpected death of Labout MP Gwyneth Dunwoody.

Her daughter Tamsin is the new candidate and will be up against others such as the Official Monster Raving Loony party's Flying Brick and the Conservatives' Edward Timpson.

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• party politics