Labour narrows Cameron's poll lead

Tuesday, 1 April 2008 12:00 AM

A hung parliament is emerging as the most likely outcome of the next general election.

Despite leading in the polls, David Cameron is unlikely to win a sufficient swing to command a majority in the House of Commons.

The latest ComRes poll for the Independent places the Conservative party 18 seats short of a majority and the Tory leader negotiating a hung parliament.

Support for the Conservatives has dropped three points over the past month, leaving them on 38 per cent.

This sees Mr Cameron losing his double-digit lead, with Labour rising one point to 31 per cent.

Backing for the Liberal Democrats remains unchanged at 17 per cent with other parties up two points on 14 per cent.

Although Labour has successfully narrowed the Conservatives' lead, they are failing to motivate their core support.

Less than half (49 per cent) of Labour voters are "certain" to vote in the next general election and just 43 per cent are "absolutely certain".

In contrast, 71 per cent and 67 per cent of Tory voters are certain and absolutely certain respectively to vote, as well as 55 per cent and 54 per cent of Liberal Democrats.

Labour's support is also weaker. Of those considering themselves "natural" Labour sympathisers, 83 per cent plan to vote for Gordon Brown, in contrast to 94 per cent of Tory supporters planning to vote for Mr Cameron.

Some 81 per cent of Lib Dem sympathisers say they will vote for the third party in the next election.

The results, based on telephone polling between March 28th and 30th, do show a small swing of lower middle and working class voters to Labour.

But the only group Labour is leading among are the 18 to 24-year-olds, of which 16 per cent are "absolutely certain" to vote.

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