Recession 'will cost 1m jobs'

Monday, 29 December 2008 12:00 AM

By politics.co.uk staff

The recession will probably result in the loss of around one million jobs, an employment thinktank has warned.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) annual survey predicted the UK economy will shed at least 600,000 jobs in 2009 and 750,000 in the 18-month period to the end of 2009.

"This time last year, in the face of some scepticism, the CIPD warned that 2008 would be the UK's worst year for jobs in a decade. It was," said John Philpott, chief economist at the CIPD.

"But in retrospect it will be seen as merely the slow motion prelude to what will be the worst year for jobs in almost two decades."

He added that - assuming the economy bottoms out in the second half of 2009 - job losses are likely to continue into 2010, "in all probability taking the final toll of lost jobs to around one million".

CIPD is now expecting a jump in redundancy numbers in the coming months as employers take stock after the Christmas rush.

"The period between new year and Easter is likely to be the worst for redundancies since 1991," Mr Philpott continued.

"The CIPD's baseline forecast is that by the end of 2009 the number of people unemployed and actively seeking work will have increased to 2.8 million, one million above the autumn 2008 figure."

The research also looked at pay expectations for 2009.

Some 28 per cent of those polled said they expected not to receive a pay rise in 2009, and 26 per cent expected a pay rise smaller than in 2008.

Shadow work and pensions secretary Chris Grayling said: "This report is extremely alarming and underlines the scale of the challenge we face."

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