Met Office: Global warming to blame for heatwave deaths

Wednesday, 1 December 2004 6:00 PM

The scorching hot 2003 summer was not just a freak occurrence but was driven by the burning of fossil fuels, according to new research from the Met Office.

Experts believe that last summer was the hottest in Europe for over 500 years and have attributed more than 27,000 excess deaths across the continent to its effects.

Though the climate naturally varies, Met Office analysts believe that mankind's actions, mainly in burning fossil fuels, more than doubles the risk of such heatwaves.

The warning is the latest in a series of scientific studies suggesting that global warming is no longer a theoretical problem but has arrived. The Prime Minister has already promised to use the UK's presidencies of the G8 and EU next year to focus on international action on the problem.

A co-author of the new research, Peter Scott, said today that: "According to our model, by the middle of this century every other summer could be even hotter than 2003."

Using sophisticated climate models and new statistical techniques, the scientists believe that they have been able to separate human factors from natural ones. Explaining the work, Mr Scott said: "We simulated 2003 summer temperatures over Europe - with and without the effect of man's activities - and compared these with observations.

"We found that although the high temperature experienced in 2003 was not impossible in a climate unaltered by man, it is very likely that greenhouse gases have at least doubled the risk and our best estimate is that such a heatwave is now four times more likely as a result of human influence on climate."

Commenting on the study, Liberal Democrat environment spokesman Norman Baker said: "The Government simply cannot ignore such an important warning from what everybody would accept is an informed, neutral and dispassionate source, namely the Met Office.

"The Prime Minister must use this material, along with other sources, to convince President Bush of the need to act quickly and effectively to tackle man-made global warming."

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