Analysis: A convincing win for Cameron
Norwich North goes blue
Friday, 24, Jul 2009 02:07
We knew the Tories would win in Norwich North. The question was: by how much?
By Ian Dunt
A Tory win in Norwich North was a given. But political analysts were concerned with two issues: how much would the party win by, and who would come second?
On the first, it was solid win. Chloe Smith, the Conservative candidate, doubled the Labour vote, ending up with a majority of over 7,000. The final tally was 13,591
votes to Labour's 6,243. The swing from Labour to the Tories was 16.5 per cent on a turnout of 45 per cent.
The answer to the second question was nothing shocking. Labour held onto second place with 6,243 to the Lib Dem's 4,803. The UK Independence party (Ukip) beat the Greens for fourth place with 4,068 votes to 3,350.
It's hard to draw conclusions about the upcoming general election on the back of today's events. This by-election, as Gordon Brown said in his monthly press conference last Wednesday, was unique. Dr Ian Gibson's resignation – a reaction to Labour's 'star chamber' barring him from standing in the general election – prompted the ire of Norwich North voters. This was slightly over-hyped in recent weeks. Plenty of constituents were still angry at the expenses claims he made. But most wanted the chance to decide his fate themselves, not have a decision imposed on them by party central. The timing of the resignation, the unusual popularity of Dr Gibson, and the fact that the by-election took place so soon after the expenses scandal, make it difficult to draw firm conclusions from the contest.
Nevertheless, the Tories are rightly jubilant. Even with another right wing party (Ukip) splitting their vote, the Tories still won a solid majority. The party has maintained its momentum into the summer months.
The real losers were the Greens, who had very high hopes going into the contest. They ended fifth, behind Ukip. Speaking of momentum, it is still difficult to find any for the Green party. Its support in the country is easily high enough to have earned greater representation. Indeed, its absence in many of our democratic institutions is an indictment of our electoral system as well as an unfortunate by-product of its appeal.
The party simply can't get past the inbuilt obstacles of the first-past-the-post voting system in constituencies, and it still has no members of parliament – although its impressive leader, Caroline Lucas, still has a strong chance of entering parliament through her Brighton and Hove campaign at the next election. The party has only two MEPs, despite the European elections being conducted under proportional representation. The trouble the Greens have is that while they enjoy support across the country, they have no base, in the way the Tories have the Shires and Labour has the industrial north. This substantial but spread-out support doesn't translate into wins, even if it does translate into votes. The Green breakthrough – prevalent across the continent - is still a long way off here.
The Lib Dems should also be disappointed. They needed to come second today. The national is government so unpopular that political commentators have to dust down their thesaurus every time they write about it. The by-election saw remaining Labour voters discouraged from voting because of the way the party treated Dr Gibson. The other centre-left party should have really benefited. Certainly, the Greens sucked a few votes out of them but the third party must be able to capitalise on this sort of situation better than it has. It could hardly ask for more appealing circumstances.
Ukip will be celebrating. It was pretty much written out of the race at the start, and although the excited predictions of a second place showing coming out overnight didn't eventuate, the party has good reason to be satisfied with its performance. Ukip is maintaining a sustained background hum in local and European elections. Its goal – to expand out from looney-right and eurosceptic voters to become a full-bodied national party with a wide range of policy areas - is still in sight. Leader Nigel Farage will now be redoubling his efforts ahead of next year's general election.
In truth, Labour did not have the worst time. Party HQ will be (secretly) grouping Labour with the Tories and Ukip as today's winners. They knew they wouldn't win, that was just a given. But a third or fourth place finish would have guaranteed savage front page headlines over the weekend - a final humiliation to top off the political season. It could have been much worse.
The Tories are on course for power and Labour is tottering towards defeat. The Norwich North result doesn't change our perceptions of the state of play between the parties, but it does confirm them.