Analysis: Glenrothes by-election

Wednesday, 13 August 2008 12:29 PM

Only the cruellest of commentators would presume Gordon Brown's thoughts are on the possibility of another by-election rather than the death of the man which triggered it.

Mr Brown was good enough friends with John MacDougall to be visiting him in hospital the day before he died, and having known each other for over 30 years there's no doubt the prime minister was speaking genuinely when he sent his condolences to Mr MacDougall's family.

But however Mr Brown feels, somewhere in the Labour party advisors are sat down trying to figure out how they will survive a Glenrothes by-election.

It could barely be worse. Glenrothes is exactly the kind of by-election Labour know they can lose, following last months dreadful Glasgow East result. The majority there was 13,500. In Glenrothes it is 10,664.

A further by-election drubbing anywhere could be enough to finally end Mr Brown's attempts to remain leader of the party, but Glenrothes is especially significant because, in a massive stroke of bad luck, it borders Mr Brown's own constituency, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

The sheer overwhelming symbolism of a neighbouring constituency falling to the SNP would be the cherry on a cake which has included a Tory victory in Crewe and Nantwich, total humiliation in Henley and an unprecedented SNP victory in Glasgow East. It's would probably make Mr Brown's position impossible.

One significant difference, however, is the manner in which the by-election was triggered. Mr MacDougall was a well-respected MP, with close ties to the unions. Constituents may vote Labour out of loyalty to his memory. If that sounds slightly idealistic, it's worth remembering the slim margin of the SNP's victory in Glasgow East - just 365 votes. With that kind of margin, small incomputable factors can make a difference.

For the time being, Labour strategists will be concentrating on timing. There is no legislation covering when by-elections have to be held once an MP quits or dies, so on paper Glenrothes could remain without an MP until parliament is next dissolved. In reality, convention says it should never be longer than three month. Recent campaigns have been considerably quicker than that.

Strategists will be concentrating on whether to hold the vote before or after the Labour party conference on September 20th. That's where Mr Brown plans to stage his comeback, starting with what needs to be the speech of his life. If Labour is nervous about whether Mr Brown will be able to deliver that performance, they will probably schedule the vote for before the conference and get all the horror out the way. After all, a loss immediately after his conference speech would unquestionably be the end of him.

If there's more faith in his ability to turn things around, they will probably try to stage it after the conference - possibly immediately afterwards to make the most of positive coverage. Look to the vote date for a good idea of how confident Labour is about this by-election, and about its leader's chances come the new political year.

Ian Dunt

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