Analysis: Climate change talks
The Poland talks will frame the next stage of the climate debate
Monday, 01, Dec 2008 12:00
Climate change negotiators meeting in Poznan, Poland, face a tough challenge from today.
The 2008 meeting of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) is seeking to establish the agenda for next year's crucial meeting in Copenhagen, where the successor protocols to Kyoto will be established.
Environmental activists are adamant the negotiators come out of Poznan by hitting the ground running. Strong mandates are needed for the chairs of the different negotiating tracks and the chair's texts need to be comprehensive.
That's all very well. But don't expect there to be major announcements from Poland in the next fortnight.
For a start this is the halfway point from Bali when, after days of intensive negotiations and a last-minute backdown by the US delegation, it was finally agreed that talks would take place on how to succeed Kyoto's protocols come 2012.
As a result, the entire process is bogged down in the minutiae of the process. The texts for the chairs mentioned above are hardly going to be headline-creating.
Less-committed journalists might be forgiven for slipping out of a side-door and making a run for more simple topics.
Fortunately there is no need for such a retreat, for Poznan raises the stakes for a number of other climate change-related developments expected in the coming two weeks.
First of all is Lord Turner's review of the climate change bill, coming later today.
The big question rests on what he will propose for Britain's emissions cuts by 2020. The UK government recently committed itself to 80 per cent reductions by 2050 but it's what you plan to do in the next political cycle that negotiators really take notice of.
Environmentalists believe a 40 per cent target for domestic cuts is realistic, given the UK has already reduced its emissions by 21 per cent.
On December 4th and 5th comes the next challenge which will influence negotiators' thinking at Poznan – the EU's emission-cutting plans.
In spring 2007 all its heads of government agreed to undertake a unilateral 20 per cent cut by 2020, rising to 30 per cent if a global deal is reached.
The package on achieving this has been working its way through the EU institutions after being unveiled in January this year.
It includes a commitment to achieve 20 per cent of energy from renewable sources by 2020; amendments to the emissions trading scheme; and provisions for carbon capture and storage.
This month it will be up to environmental ministers, on December 4th and 5th, and heads of state on December 11th and 12th to thrash out the deal and produce a strong package.
Then there are the other factors which come into play. The general political mood will have a huge impact; China will be diplomatically frosty after cancelling last week's scheduled EU summit because of French president Nicolas Sarkozy's meeting with the Dalai Lama.
And finally, there's the Obama factor. The president-elect will be conspicuously absent from Poznan, although failed Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry will be present.
Mr Obama's manifesto included a commitment to the 80 per cent cut by 2050 and the signals are good, but – with all White House administrations – you can never be sure until pen hits paper.
By chance a new American president, the final talks on an EU deal and Britain's contribution are all in the mix as Poznan convenes.
Keep an eye on the externals in the next two weeks, therefore, as the world tries its best to create a meaningful deal on cutting carbon emissions.
The results of all this are a climate change negotiations which will be fractious, complicated and surprisingly fickle. It was never going to be easy – but many will be anxiously following developments in the hope real progress can be made.
Alex Stevenson